The Cruel Math of Immigration Reform in the House

Every politician who gets elected to Congress believes that she's going for idealistic reasons. Sure, there are compromises to be made and certain kinds of drudgery to suffer through (particularly fundraising, which they all hate, and justifiably so), but they each believe that they'll do the right thing and work for the kind of change they'd like to see. Nobody gazes up at the Capitol building having been sent there by the people to do the people's work and says, "I'm going to just keep my head down and try not to take any political risks, so I can keep getting elected indefinitely."

But in practice, they frequently face times when they can support something they believe is a good idea for one reason or another, but carries some risk. As comprehensive immigration reform is being considered in the House, each member is going to weighing questions like the following: How much good do I think this bill is going to do? How many votes will supporting it cost me? How hard will it be to convince the constituents who didn't like my support for it to vote for me anyway? Is it going to make fundraising easier or harder? Is the bill going to face a tight vote, so my choice will make a difference? Is my party leadership offering me something to vote the way they want, or threatening to punish me if I don't? And way, way down the list is: How will the outcome of this vote affect my party's long-term prospects in presidential elections?

Some of those questions have easy answers. For instance, Speaker Boehner seems utterly incapable of exercising any influence on anyone in his caucus, so it's unlikely that very many Republicans are all that concerned about what he thinks (and in this case, it's not entirely clear what he thinks, though reports are that like most Republicans who look at the big picture, he realizes it's a bad thing for the GOP if reform dies). As everyone knows, in the last few elections House Republicans have become more conservative, making them less inclined toward passing reform. We often talk about Republican members as being true believers motivated more by ideological dogma than by political considerations, which is true, but only partly because of who they are. It's also because of the districts they come from. Janet Hook of The Wall Street Journal splashes some cold water on CIR's prospects with some simple math:

District by district across the country, there are few House Republicans who have a strong political incentive to support the Senate bill.

An analysis by The Wall Street Journal showed that only 38 of the House's 234 Republicans, or 16%, represent districts in which Latinos account for 20% or more of the population.

In addition, only 28 Republican-held districts are considered even remotely at risk of being contested by a Democratic challenger, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

She doesn't say what the overlap is between the 28 vulnerable districts and the 38 districts with substantial Latino populations, but the former is probably not completely within the latter, meaning that the number of House Republicans who will be damaged by immigration reform dying is less than a couple dozen.

So to summarize: Within the Republican caucus in the House, there is some subset that believes comprehensive immigration reform is a good idea. Then there's some subset of that group that finds the bill that passed the Senate to be a reasonable approximation of the reform they'd like to see. Then there is some subset of that group that thinks voting for it doesn't bring with it the risk of a primary challenge. When we get down to that subset of a subset of a subset that is actually willing to vote for immigration reform, we're talking about a very small number.

Comments

WE REALIZE THAT MANY POLITICIANS ARE THE PUPPETS OF LUCRATIVE SPECIAL INTERESTS? BUT NOW YOU BETTER LISTEN TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, WHO HAVE THE POWER OF THE VOTE?

THE JOKE IS ON THE JOBLESS AMERICANS?

Look what has manifested in the last two decades, since the illegal alien invasion. Perhaps I should say since the failure of the 1986 Immigration Reform & Control Act (IRCA) was enacted. 27 years ago 3 million mostly Guest workers receive Amnesty. Let’s see now- deliberate failure to prosecute employers who hire illegal aliens, which became a huge magnet for more to cross the borders or fly here as a visitor who overstays their visas with no intention in returning home. Then there is the growth of hundreds of Sanctuary Cities, which should have been closed down years ago? The sponsorship of family members adding to the welfare rolls, when the original sponsor doesn’t support them anymore. The unresponsive law that must be contained of Birthright Citizenship, originally as written for the descendants of slaves, that is inclusive of illegal alien mothers, who are aware they are not going to be deported and that the birth of numerous babies once here can supplement the parents income. Because of complete neglect of the IRCA law, we now have over 11 million foreign nationals or even more. There have several amendments to the law, including the 2006 Secure Fence Act, but again was short changed and the 700 miles were never built. That was a double layer fence parallel to each other, making it extremely hard to cross into America without detection. Favoritism and lucrative donors who buy contracts, when the SONIC BARRIER SENSOR puts all other people and air traffic sensors to shame? Most of the border it still remains an enigma, because the drugs and human traffic is still getting past agents. If Congress had been serious about stemming the flow of welfare aliens, criminals and even terrorists impersonating people from South of the border, the fence would have already been visible.

The G8 and its accomplices of mixed senators from the GOP are adamant the bill will secure our borders, that interior will be carried out with the electronic E-Verify, it’s still on hold? THE SENATE IS ATTEMPTING TO LEGALIZE THE 11 MILLION PLUS FIRST, BEFORE THE FIRST 350 MILES OF DOUBLE LAYER FENCING IS BUILT. DON’T BE MISLEAD DOUBLE FENCING DOESN’T EXIST OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF THE BIG CITIES? Then there's a clause (AS ALWAYS) in it that says Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, a liberal appointee lackey of the White House doesn't have to follow all the way through with border security measure. Its all “smoke and mirrors as typical”? This woman whether from influence from inside the Department of Justice, has not enforced deporting illegal aliens now, including criminals—so do you think she has going to enforce laws now? This women has defied the oversight committees with a smirk on her features, stating the border is “Secure”? She should be a standup comic, except the Border Patrol would say it not funny.

In placing 20.000 more agents on the border doesn’t do anything for the internal enforcement? Chris Crain, President of the ICE union (Internal Enforcement) was completely ignored in the Senate bill for interior ground agents and equipment. The Justice Department is already being sued by ICE, and now the U.S. Border Patrol agents are also taking the Obama administration for not being allowed to carry out the law. Chris Crain stated today that 40 percent of foreign nationals do not arrive through borders; they arrive by plane and so without any ENTRY/ EXIT verification system at ports of entry, they remain undetected, settling here after their visa has expired. Unlike border entries who when caught are fingerprinted, those who come here hand over a flimsy card, of where they are supposed to be staying as a visitor, but of course abscond. With only 5.000 ICE agents for the whole country has no means to follow up. Yet the Senate has done nothing about the limited enforcement and instead is recruiting 20.000 Border Patrol agents, when half of that number or even more should work inside the United States. Even the E-Verify has its limitations and should be replaced by a biometric Nationwide ID card for citizens, than spending for $48 Billion dollars on just the border region. It could be used for job opportunities, voter fraud and stop credit theft.

Grimes: Illegal Aliens and 50% of Americans that do not pay Income Taxes Exempted From ObamaCare
By Stephen Frank on 06/30/2013, California News & Views
ObamaCare, according to Barack, will cover all Americans. He never said all Americans are going to pay for it. Instead, the 50% of Americans that do not file income taxes will not pay, but get free health care. Clinics that give health care to the 11 million illegal aliens will continue to give them “free” health care, with the 50% that do pay taxes, paying for it. No wonder the cost of individual health care in California is going up, up to 146% or in Ohio by 88%? Free cost those who work and productive—the half of society that lives off the productive will now get an even better deal—and illegal aliens will be crazy to accept amnesty, it does not pencil out.
Are we crazy to work?
“According to the IRS, “Certain individuals who are not required to file an income tax return but who technically fall outside the statutory exemption for those with household income below the filing threshold.”
“HHS regulations also provide that the hardship exemption will be available on a case-by-case basis for individuals who face other unexpected personal or financial circumstances that prevent them from obtaining coverage.”

YOU CAN ALSO BLAST FAXES AT numbersusa and write your own message or copy the one exhibited. At americanpatrol is a daily report from newspapers across the country, illustrating the huge rise in drunk drivers, and other heinous crimes the left oriented press keeps suppressed. For legal information about corruption in Washington and in state assemblies at judicialwatch Also Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has set up an email address for people to contact if they believe they were targeted by the IRS. That address is: IRSTarget@Cruz.Senate.gov. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has launched a national petition. It is at SecureBordersNow,” Cruz said. “In just a week, we’ve have reached 150,000 people from all over the country sign that petition speaking out to say ‘Do not do legalization first. Secure the borders first, fix the problem.”? JUST FIX THE PROBLEM!

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