The record economic boom is near a tipping point. Although no serious
inflation is being generated by the sizzling economy, increases in oil prices show up in the general price index. They also worsen America's balance of trade.
Meanwhile, the weakness of the euro is depressing profits that American
companies earn abroad. On all these counts, the stock market is getting very nervous.
A big stock market correction would cool off both consumer and business spending. It might scare off the foreign investors who keep buying our bonds. In this context, a misstep by the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve could help send the economy into deep recession.