Responding to Paul's post about Rick Perry's identity politics, Kevin Drum writes:
For the record, I don't think Perry can win the Republican nomination, and I know that he can't beat Obama in a general election. I'd love to see him try, though.
With respect to the Republican nomination, I'm not sure about Perry's prospects. I certainly think he can win, but I do think his chances are being overrated a little. I could imagine him uniting various GOP factions and cruising to victory. I can also see him getting outflanked by Bachmann among the conservative base and Romney among party elites and moderates (if there are any left) and fizzling. I do think that the longer he waits to get it, the more likely the second scenario becomes, but otherwise I have no idea what would happen.
With respect to the general election, though, I'm with Matt Yglesias all the way. Barring an unusually strong economic turnaround that the debt-ceiling deal makes even less likely, anybody who wins the GOP nomination will have a reasonable chance of getting elected. Indeed, I'd push it even further, and say that this absolutely applies to Bachmann as well. (Barack Obama didn't have a traditional presidential CV either.) The candidate chosen by the Republicans might make some difference at the margin -- but that's it. Anybody who wins the nod will have a real chance of winning, and Democrats who are hoping that Republican primary voters follow their worst instincts should be very careful what they wish for.
