CARVILLE SAYS HILLARY CAN WIN FLORIDA. A week ago I wondered aloud what southern states, if any, Hillary Clinton-backer James Carville thinks she could win, if nominated, in the 2008 general election. Yesterday, at an event at Northern Virginia Community College co-sponsored by Carville and Charlie Cook, I got to ask him myself.
Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida. Though I'd agree with his ordinal rankings, I'm not sure she can win any of them. But yes, Florida is the most likely.
Asked to scratch out a list of Bush-won seats from 2004 that he thinks Hillary can win, regardless of region, Carville listed Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa -- the last two, of course, being states John Kerry lost that Al Gore won. He didn't mention Missouri, West Virginia or Kentucky. He's not sure Hillary can win the Bluegrass State, and I readily agree. (Sidebar: Carville stopped to ask me, "Did we win Kentucky in 1992?" I had to remind him that the Clinton-Gore ticket carried it narrowly in both 1992 and 1996. His uncertainty made me realize he's not, in fact, forever living in 1992, like the political-consultancy equivalent of Uncle Rico in Napoleon Dynamite, repeatedly waxing nostalgic about life "back in '81.")
I also pressed Carville on his post-election comments about Howard Dean, and asked DCCC's Karin Johanson what she thought about Carville's outburst. I'll say more about that later today or tomorrow. Stay tuned.
--Tom Schaller
