Last quarter the markets were surprised by a stronger than expected number for personal consumption expenditures in March. I commented that the surprise was surprising because March personal consumption expenditures were embedded in the first quarter GDP data that had been released the prior week.

Here's a chance to look for more surprising surprises. The consensus number for June personal consumption expenditures is an increase of 0.4 percent. My arithmetic puts the figure at over 1.0 percent. There is always the possibility of a substantial upward revision to the April and May data, but absent a large revision, June expenditures should come in much higher than "expected." Will the markets be surprised?

--Dean Baker

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