Don't Get Cocky.

Expected gains in November have Republicans feeling pretty confident about their position vis-à-vis voters, but if I were a Republican, I'd try to remember that most voters aren't particularly thrilled about my party. According to the most recent data from Public Policy Polling, only 20 percent of voters approve of the job congressional Republicans are doing, while 60 percent disapprove. By contrast, 33 percent of voters approve of congressional Democrats, while 57 percent disapprove.

At the risk of sounding really obvious, the midterm elections are less about voter dissatisfaction with Democrats and more about voter dissatisfaction with the economy, which manifests itself as a blind urge to "throw the bums out of office." Of course, should Republicans win the House in November, they will cast themselves as the true champions of the average American. But at the very least, they should privately remember that voters aren't keen on either party and will switch sides the moment it becomes clear that things aren't improving.

-- Jamelle Bouie

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