Blizzard is the most applicable term for the brewing cataclysm. Why? Because if Mother Nature sweeps a new Democratic majority -- or two -- into power in Washington, the disproportionate share of Republican defeats will occur in the Rust Belt states of the Northeast-Midwest corridor. Coupled with isolated twisters in the Plains and a few Western earthquakes, what you have is the formula for a Republican natural disaster north of the Mason-Dixon Line�.I know, I know: I�m obsessed with the notion of a non-southern strategy. But these rankings and analyses are not mine, and the numbers are what they are -- or rather, where they are.Of the 60 House seats most likely to switch to the other party this year, according to the latest rankings by Chuck Todd, editor of the National Journal�s �Hotline� political tipsheet, 53 are held by Republicans and just seven by Democrats. Where are they? Although 39 percent of incumbent House Republicans are Southerners, only seven of their 53 imperiled seats -- a mere 13 percent -- are in the South. Three of those seven are in Florida, the decidedly least Southern of the Southern states.
Conversely, of those seven Democrats Todd lists as potentially in jeopardy (despite their party�s strong tailwinds), three are in Dixie. A smattering of Democrats are positioned to win in places like Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. But, as The New York Times� Jeffrey L. Austin reported last week, Georgia is home to two of the �rarest breed� of candidates this year: the �at-risk Democrat.�
--Tom Schaller
