When push comes to shove, President Bush postures moderate, but delivers for his right-wing base. Consider two epic legislative struggles still playing out -- whether to add a stripped-down drug benefit to Medicare and whether to extend tax relief to lower-income working families.
Two other key players in this drama are the House majority leader, Tom DeLay, and Karl Rove, the White House political adviser. In the case of Medicare, Rove's opinion polls told him that Bush needed to be able to claim credit for delivering a drug benefit for the elderly -- a group that votes and one that's reeling from skyrocketing medical expenses. The actual measure the House passed is a terrible bill. It creates new pressures for seniors to move from traditional Medicare to HMOs, and it leaves even those who buy the additional insurance exposed to thousands of dollars in prescription drug bills.
Even so, conservative Republicans were loath to create a new $40 billion-a-year entitlement. The Wall Street Journal warned that Republicans were playing on Democratic turf, that they'd been outmaneuvered by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), who brokered a somewhat better bill in the Senate.
It took every ounce of White House pressure to get the House to approve the bill last week on a vote of 216-215. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got personally involved.
DeLay was told that this was a must-win for the president. In his fund-raising last weekend, Bush touted drug benefits under Medicare as his top legislative priority. The eventual bill could be a real turkey, but Bush can claim that he delivered for seniors and used the power of the White House to get the necessary votes.
Now consider tax breaks for working families. Early this spring, as Bush's latest tax cut was moving through Congress, Democrats made an effort to include benefits for some 12 million children in 6.5 million working families who were left out of Bush's bill. These are families with incomes of between about $10,500 and $26,000 who pay payroll taxes but no federal income taxes. Democrats wanted these families to get relief through a refundable child tax credit. Conservative Republicans argued that families that paid no income tax should not get tax relief.
However, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, was sympathetic to the idea and worked with Democrats to add it to the final tax bill. Legislators were under the impression that these benefits had been added in House-Senate conference.
But after Bush signed the bill with great fanfare May 28, a reading of the fine print revealed that these working families with children were excluded after all. Indeed, most GIs fighting in Iraq did not make enough income to receive benefits. The White House was embarrassed.
The Senate quickly acted, voting 94-2 to extend benefits to the excluded working families. On June 9, White House spokesman Ari Fleisher declared, "the president wants to sign this legislation -- he hopes that the Congress will get it to him quickly."
But then a revealing thing happened. DeLay felt free to disparage the legislation -- and his president. "Ain't gonna happen," said the majority leader. Reminded of Fleisher's words, DeLay told a press conference: "Last time I checked, he doesn't have a vote here."
Congressional Quarterly reported that at the weekly legislative strategy meeting of the Republican House and Senate leadership, the White House made it clear that Bush and Rove did not consider the child tax credit "must" legislation. The Senate child tax credit bill is languishing in conference. Meanwhile, the Medicare bill is on a fast track. So what is at work here?
First, the far-right calls the tune for this administration except where Karl Rove calculates that Bush needs to be credible with moderates.
Second, even the moderate legislation that survives, like the House Medicare drug bill, is just window dressing or worse.
Third, ultraconservatives like DeLay have immense power to block even bipartisan bills approved overwhelmingly by the Senate. Bush needs DeLay's help on Medicare, so DeLay is free to block the child tax credit.
But -- the punch line -- these are ultimately Bush's priorities. He, not DeLay, is president. Despite Ari Fleisher's pretty words, helping children in working families is not an issue on which Bush is willing to spend political capital.
Until the press and the opposition Democrats keep critical attention focused on the Bush formula -- posture moderate, govern far-right -- and until voters start noticing, this machine will keep rolling over policies that most Americans want.
Robert Kuttner is co-editor of the Prospect.
This column originally appeared in yesterday's Boston Globe.
