This is pretty impressive:
A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.
The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up."
For perspective, 290 votes in the House are needed to override a presidential veto -- the GOP estimate would put Democrats only 20 seats short of that figure. And holding 44 Senate seats is actually more optimistic for the GOP than most independent estimates (Pollster.com, for example, currently has only 43 seats rated as Republican or tossup), which suggests Republicans might even be underestimating how much trouble they're in.
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