KRISTOL: "BUSH'S PRESIDENCY WILL PROBABLY BE A SUCCESSFUL ONE." You almost have to ask yourself if William Kristol really believes this stuff. I'm sure his column will be ripped apart by day's end, but let's just start the morning off with a few obvious counterarguments:

Kristol: "What about terrorism? Apart from Iraq, there has been less of it, here and abroad, than many experts predicted on Sept. 12, 2001."

Reality: The State Department's own numbers show a dramatic rise in the incidence of global terrorism under the Bush administration, from about 175 attacks in 2003 to 655 in 2005. In what camp is this considered a success?

Kristol: If the United States hadn't gone into Iraq, Saddam's ties to Al-Qaeda would today "be intact or revived and even strengthened."

Reality: The September 11 Commission found no evidence of a "collaborative relationship" between Al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein's Iraq. But today, four years after the American invasion, one of the fiercest insurgent groups in Iraq, Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, models itself after the organization that attacked New York and Washington in 2001, yet is a whole cloth product of the war.

Kristol spouts all this nonsense about success in Iraq in order to come to the conclusion that the United States should begin drawing down troops in 2008 (though no sooner). I agree with Brad Plumer: Saying this ill-conceived war is "Won and Done" is more than inaccurate -- it's an invitation to make more catastrophically deadly foreign policy mistakes in the future. Iraq is Un-Won and No-Fun for anybody -- time to get out.

--Dana Goldstein

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