Apparently we don’t need to wait five days to find out who’ll be president for the next four years. All we need to do is check out, say, The Boston Herald, for a headline confidently proclaiming: “Romney set to win, maybe by a mile.” Or National Review Online, where we learn that “the size of Romney’s victory could be the biggest surprise of all.” Or The Wall Street Journal, where that most disinterested of political observers, Karl Rove, proclaims: “It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.” Then there’s The Hill, where Dick Morris prophecies, “Here comes the landslide.” And if we still have any lingering doubts—or fanciful hopes for President Obama—they will be shattered by UnSkewedPolls.com, which has “The Updated Definitive Projection of the race: Romney wins 54 percent and 359 EVs.”
That’s right, people: This sucker is—to coin a phrase—signed, sealed, and delivered for the Republican challenger, and Ann Romney can have her people start measuring the curtains right away. At least that’s the view from the universe in which Fox News is a news source and legitimate polling data has all the credibility of climate science and Charles Darwin. By every non-"unskewed" account, the election is extremely tight—especially when you look at national polls—but Obama holds a likely decisive advantage in battleground states.
No matter. The right appears certain that Romney will win—maybe by a lot. Perhaps it’s a giant confidence game to keep Republican voters from being discouraged. More likely, it’s something deeper, as James Fallows writes: “It is natural to have deep divisions within the country on how the presidential election should turn out. It’s unusual to have such contradictory assumptions about what is going to happen just over 100 hours from now.” Fallows views this as evidence that “perceptions of separate reality have reached a new level.” True enough. But it’s also, as one of his readers notes, a set-up for Republicans to “de-legitimize an Obama win.” Again. As sure as the sun will rise on November 7, the reaction to an Obama win from the right will be a unified chorus: “No he didn’t!” And that chorus won't peter out for another four years.
So They Say
"I’m aware of all the atmospherics. I’m not in a coma. But the fact is, I don’t care. There will be some folks who will criticize me for complimenting him. Well, you know what? I speak the truth. That’s what I always do.”
—Chris "You Don't Know Me" Christie, talking about his post-storm cooperation with President Obama
Daily Meme: Get Out the Canvassers
- With the election only a few days away, both parties are going gangbusters at getting the vote out.
- In Nevada and Colorado, Obama and Romney are targeting Latino voters who will play a crucial role in tipping the electoral scales.
- A nationwide poll by Latino Decisions shows that 87 percent of Latinos are almost certain to vote, and the campaigns have spent more than $4 million on campaign ads on Telemundo and Univision in Las Vegas to try and sway the growing demographic.
- Native American communities across the country are working hard at bringing out their 3 million voters despite the long-standing status quo of low turnout.
- College kids, the sleeper superstars of grassroots campaigning, are out in force in swing states and close Senate races.
- The New York Times, continuing one of its most cherished campaign narratives,insists that these armies of young volunteers with their Salvador Dali mustaches are now bored by this whole politics thing.
- Labor unions are out in full force too, 128,000 strong and hoping to knock on 5.5 million doors.
- In Virginia, canvassing has become the last battleground of the down-to-the-wire race, where both campaigns fight in a street-by-street war to capture undecideds and bring out the party-hearty.
- The secret sauce of the Obama campaign's election strategy isn't getting those last four percent of undecided voters though. Getting out the base vote has been its long game for the past year. Come Tuesday we'll see if it was the perfect plan, or a risky failure.
What We're Writing
- Abby Rapoport IDs the seven must-follow state races for your presidential-election-obsession breather sessions.
- Clare Malone wonders what a Sherrod Brown victory will mean for the future of Ohio's Democratic Party.
What We're Reading
- Jane Mayer rebuffs Hans Von Spakovsky's whining about her voter-fraud reporting.
- Asawin Suebsaeng rounds up all the poll maestros who are the next best things to crystal balls as we wait for the Election Day results.
- The Economist endorses the president, because although the magazine has "many complaints about Barack Obama ... Mitt Romney's failings are graver. "
- Michael Bloomberg also endorsed Obama, seeing the election and climate change in "sharp relief" after Hurricane Sandy devastated his city.
- Speaking of the same issue and moniker, Bloomberg Businessweek declares on its cover this week: "It's Global Warming, Stupid."
- The Center for Responsible Politics predicts that election spending will top $6 billion this year.
- A beautiful infographic from The Guardian shows where priorities diverge across state lines.
- Turns out Romney is actually paying much of Fox News to work on his campaign.
- Big news: Romney's revenue-neutral tax plan is theoretically possible. If we were living in the 1960s, that is.
- Does David Axelrod still have his mustache? Let's use wizardry and rocket science to find out.
Poll of the Day
If Europe were voting in next Tuesday's election, President Obama would win in a landslide. Seven European nations— Britain, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland—were surveyed by YouGov, and Obama won more than 90 percent of their support.
For more polling information, go to the Prospect’s 2012 election map.
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