NOT WORTH THE PAPER THEY'RE NOT PRINTED ON, BUT... While I take Addie's (and Bob Somerby's) point about predicting election outcomes, I can't resist saying something. I'm actually inclined to stick with Dems +5 for the Senate, which seemed pessimistic last week but now seems a little optimistic. Although Sam seems to buy the claims about Steele that are also popular at the otherwise gloomy (from their perspective) Weekly Standard, I don't see it, partly owing to my political scientist's belief that the effects of campaigning are overrated. Well, looking at the marginal seats (and I think PA and OH are certain Dem pickups, of course), I'd group them like this:

  • Confident about Democratic chances: MD, NJ, RI
  • Tentatively think Dems will win: MO, MT
  • Tentatively think Dems will lose: VA
  • Dems Deader than The Santa Clause 3's Oscar chances: TN

Hmm. well, I guess that's not fully optimistic. On the one hand, I think that +5 is the most likely scenario. On the other hand, +2 or +3 is a lot more likely than the Dems taking the Senate.

In re: the House, basically polling doesn't give you remotely precise answers. If you're one of those compulsive types that just has to bet, I dunno ... Denver! I mean, Dems +22!

--Scott Lemieux

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