As per my earlier post on Newt Gingrich’s collapse in Iowa, here is how Intrade rates the current odds for victory in the Iowa caucuses:
In essence, conventional wisdom has moved away from the view that Gingrich will emerge from Iowa as the winner, and toward the (more accurate) view that the race is a toss-up between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. With his ground game and appeals to evangelical voters—he’s moved to 10 percent support in the latest Public Policy Polling survey—Rick Perry still has a shot at a strong finish in Iowa, but that isn’t reflected in the Intrade numbers; so far, he’s valued at about 9-to–1 odds.
Given the extent to which Perry is still a viable contender for the nomination—or at least, he’s still plausible as a nominee—then it would be silly to pass up these odds, especially if you’re the kind of person who bets on political outcome. Right now, Perry is a steal.
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