So last night was New Year’s Eve, and a group of 25 or so media types from So last night was New Year’s Eve, and a group of 25 or so media types from Time, Bloomberg and McClatchy (and, later on, our own TAPPED alumn, Garance Franke-Ruta) were out at 801 Grand, a chop house in downtown Des Moines. Of course, everyone was clicking away, checking their Crackberries for the big news of the New Year: the Des Moines Register poll results which, in case you missed them, are: Democrats Barack Obama, 32%; Hillary Clinton, 25%; John Edwards, 24% Republicans Mike Huckabee, 32%; Mitt Romney, 26%; and the man I think will eventually be the nominee, rising John McCain, at 13%. (McCain also got two key endorsements in New Hampshire this week, but more on that later.) Because of its oversampling of what would be first-time caucus goers, some immediately questioned the results the moment the poll was issued. The emphasis, of course, is on would-be. The DMR's own David Yepsen has his own analysis here, which is worth reading. I had a conversation with the inimitable Walter Shapiro two nights ago, who has a very insightful Obama piece out this morning, and I think his calculus for the Democrats on Thursday is spot on. It's basically a 120/135/150 game: If total caucus goers is approaching or exceeding 150,000 (it was about 122k four years ago), that means that older voters are there but also a lot of younger and new, firs-timers, so that favors Obama; if the total is way down close to 2004 levels, that means only the most reliable, veteran caucus-goers are there, which favors Edwards; if the number is somewhat closer to the 135K mid-point, that means reliables and olders are there, but not newbies, and since Clinton is counting on those seniors she's most favored here. Without giving away too much from my GOP profile coming out tomorrow, I think the interesting question is whether Huckabee peaked too early and, more specifically, whether he can turn his poll support into actual, caucus day action. Jay Barth, a colleague and political scientist at Hendrix College in AR who has followed Huckabee for years puts the matter to me this way: "It’s difficult for him to get all those church organizations to work together, and it takes some top-down campaign organization to make that work. It’s a very risky strategy, but it’s the only strategy he has." --Tom Schaller
