Before all eyes in the country turned to football last night, President Barack Obama told Matt Lauer in his annual pre-Super Bowl interview that he "deserve[s] a second term.” He went on: “We’ve made progress. The key right now is to just make sure we don’t start turning in a new direction that could throw that progress off." It's impossible to hear these words without thinking of the 243,000 new jobs added in January—very good news for an administration whose future rests on the capriciousness of the global economy over the next few months. The wealth of good news has also led to a jump in Obama's approval rating and, for the first time, Obama holds a significant edge over Mitt Romney in a hypothetical match-up; if the election were held today, Obama would win with 51 percent of the vote.
Chart of the Day
The unemployment rate isn't a very good predictor of electoral success. The real magic number is the rate of job growth. A 1 percent increase in growth translates into a vote share 400 percent bigger than decreasing unemployment by 1 percent.