For evidence of Texas governor Rick Perry's rapid collapse, look no further than recent surveys of Republican presidential voters. According to a Gallup poll released yesterday, only 15 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents support Perry, down from 31 percent in September, and 29 percent in August. Likewise, Public Policy Polling found Perry's support plummeting among Republicans in Iowa and North Carolina, states with large evangelical populations that should be friendly to the governor.
Last night's presidential debate was Perry's chance to show Republicans that they can trust him with the party's nomination and make up for his prior poor debate performances. He failed on both counts. Even in the subdued roundtable exchange, Perry evaded questions, stumbled over answers, and fudged attacks against his opponents. When he tried to land an attack on Mitt Romney's health-care plan in Massachusetts, Romney twisted it into a critique of Perry's governorship. "We have the lowest number of kids -- as a percentage -- uninsured of any state in America. You have the highest," Romney responded. "You have a million kids uninsured in Texas -- a million kids. " That Perry couldn't even stammer out a response to this is a clear demonstration of his terrible debate skills.
Mitt Romney, in contrast, did nothing but improve his position with last night's debate. Romney isn't a good debater -- he has a tendency to ramble -- but he's more practiced thanks to his prior experience in running for president. He also benefits from his position vis a vis other candidates; because the rest of the field is running to distinguish themselves as the alternative to Romney, they're more focused on attacking each other than the former Massachusetts governor. It's why Michele Bachmann, for example, saved her sharpest attacks for Rick Perry: "You went on to increase spending in Texas by over 50 percent, and you financed that spending by increasing bond debt by over 137 percent. ... How can we trust you to not go down the Obama way and overspend and pay for that spending with indebtedness on the backs of the next generation?"
The only candidate to focus on the front-runner was Herman Cain, who has emerged as the most popular of the Romney alternatives. But for the first time, Cain was also the target of criticism. Both the candidates and the moderators pressed him for details on his "9-9-9" plan -- a tax plan which replaces the current code with a 9 percent income tax, a 9 percent corporate tax, and a 9 percent flat tax on goods and services -- and he managed to answer most questions, if not without some difficulties. When presented with an analysis by Bloomberg Government finding that his plan would reduce revenue that could only be recouped with high taxes on food, medicine, and other necessities, Cain demurred: "The problem with that analysis is that it's not correct." Throughout the night, Cain was strongest on questions where he could stick to his script, and for the most part, it didn't take much for him to turn each question into a showcase for the 9-9-9 plan. When asked what he would do to break partisan gridlock, for example, he made a strong pitch for his plan instead of answering the question. Cain never faltered, and with his clear and straightforward rhetoric, he's likely to remain a favorite for those opposed to Romney.
Overall, this debate did little to change the status quo in the Republican presidential primary. Mitt Romney is still the front-runner, and Herman Cain -- even with his newfound popularity -- is still a long shot for the nomination, along with the other candidates -- Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman -- who remain on the margins of the contest. With $15 million in the bank and an established campaign organization, Rick Perry is still a formidable candidate and remains the only plausible alternative to Romney. But his campaign is still bleeding, and he isn't doing himself any favors with his poor debate performances.
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Comments
HenryC (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 14:52
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I doubt that Romney won a single person over during the debate. He also did not lose anyone. I believe Cain and Gingrich will both gain on Romney. Perry did not harm himself this time, so he may not drop.
Aaron Mackley (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 15:18
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Romney will probably gain another 1-3 percentage points on RCP average over the next week.
Four of the candidates personally questioned Romney, and each question was clearly and thoughtfully answered. Each of those question gave Romney strong speaking time, which he used well. Cain's 999 was starting to get vetted so some of his support will begin to soften. Gingrich may gain some, but I think we'll see Cain begin to level off or fall slightly. Cain stumbled hard with his Fed answers. Cain's 9% new federal sales tax took a severe hit by Santorum. Perry tried to attack Romney over Romneycare, but Romney easily parried and thrust. (No pun intended; it was the right word.) Romney's answer turned the number of uninsured children back on Perry. Then, Romney made a brilliant move. Instead of allowing any one of the candidates a way to get good debate time, he gave Bachmann a very light weight question. Because her candidate has the least traction right now, it was a brilliant strategy.
Romney clearly controlled the debate. With a few good thrusts from some of the other candidates, Cain was slowed. Perry gained no traction.
Sherlocktoo (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 15:35
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First, I disagree. I thought Perry improved, but I don't think he won, no not close. But neither did Romney or Cain. Bachmann, Santorum, and Gingrich all score higher in the debate than the big three. And that is my opinion. So, where do we go from here? Well, this is not a contest of debating with the stars, this is a reality in which we have a need to know who has a plan that can pull our economy out of failure, where we now have a star debater in chief. Obama will out debate most of these candidates, but it is not so much about who can win a debate, but who can implement a common sense plan to get our economy going again. Journalist often get excited over intelligence, the ability to debate, or whether they feel a tingle up or down their legs, and then try to manipulate the thoughts of the voter to vote for this or that candidate. We have too many journalists writing opinions, rather than giving the people (voters) what we need, simple honest reporting. Investigative journalism seems to be dead, but america's voters could use of of it, especially about our government representatives. And our presidential candidates, how about telling us without bias, what their experiences are; what they have done with their lives, what successes and failures they have experienced, how much political experience they do or do not have. How about their private lives, their business lives, if they failed at anything and what might have been learned from their failures. What are the in depth ideas they have planned for our nation. Does anyone think that the soundbites we get during these debates, give us a clear idea as to where this person wants to lead our nation. Interviews with 2 or 3 good journalist would give the voters far more information, and don't let the candidates trash each other. Make them tell us about themselves. This is just one way that today's media is failing. How about journalists become more responsible to those they try to inform. We would be a better nation for it.
Anne (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 15:39
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After running for the nomination for years now, Romney still has not secured it because we all know his conservatism is superficial... and after Bush's second term, we dread another RINO. I still have hope that Rick Perry will find his voice. He's great off the cuff, but like a caged animal when highly scripted and over-managed.
gittyup (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 15:43
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Romney did not do well, last night. I don't see Bouie's analysis as accurate. Romney is a talker, but he doesn't say much. THe establishment and Obama's press want Romney to do well. That is what I get from this article. Perry did okay with what he had to work with. His statement were more emphatic and more articulate than Romney's. Cain did very well, and so did Backman. I even liked Huntsman. I think they are all worthy candidates. Whoever wins, I will support them. In the meantime, I support Perry.
Joe Phillips (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 15:55
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Perry is as Dumb as a sack full of Rocks and a RINO in the mode of Bush Jr. the Stupid!
But lets never forget or forgive and vow to never elect another Worthless RINO like Bush Jr. It was Bush Jr. the Stupid that cherry picked CIA reports to support his invasion of Iraq to show Bush Sr. how a real man fought a war using other parents children.While he and his, including his fellow yellow back coward Mr. 6 times deferment and other priorities VP Cheney stayed safe and living the high life!The same fool that often bragged with a smirk on his face about his ownership society made up of liars loans by millions of Illegal Aliens, among others. The same idiot that often told us Family values did not stop at the Rio Grande and followed Vincent Fox around like a love sick puppy! But he was right about the Family Values they bring the same family values that made Mexico and Latin American Third World Slums and a Cesspool of Crime, Corruption, Poverty and Misery across the Border with them.Some of those values being Education hating, Prolific breeding, Gang joining, Corruption, Love of Welfare and hater of American its Laws, Constitution and Citizens!Under Bush Jr. the Stupid Republicans increased federal spending at twice the rate of Bill Clinton; they left our borders wide open; they approved the biggest increase in entitlement spending since the Great Society and that turned record budget surpluses into record deficits to launch this brave new era of globalization.
dawngazer (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 16:07
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I do not agree with the conclusion that Perry failed in last night's debate. He clearly emphasized our nation's dramatic need to develop her energy resources as a key strategy to stimulate job creation. In my opinion, he was not obliged to reveal every part of his economic plan, given the fact that he is scheduled to unveil the plan later this week and due to the time constraints. He was astute to mention that Romney had many years to develop a plan, where as, he had less than two months. Nevertheless, his plan is forthcoming.
On two occasions during the night, his counterparts referred to his previous comments in agreement, one reference by Rick Santorum and one by Mitt Romney. There was limited applause during the evening but some of it was in response to Perry's remarks. Perry is a credible Romney alternative. His performance was steady and showed preparation and improvement. I was impressed by his knowledge of President Reagan's notes in his diary regarding the missing reductions in spending that were to offset tax increases; Perry was immediately able to provide an insightful answer to this loaded question.
The one thing I would like to see is for Perry to ignore the hypercritical pundits and keep articulating his stellar qualifications for the office of the presidency and his vision to see Americans back at work.
All the best, Governor Perry.
Stan in CT (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 16:09
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Cain seems to have only one idea, and one answer, to every question: 9-9-9. He was unable to explain how 9-9-9 would lead to job creation. He could cite only one "economist" who had helped develop the plan...a mystery man who lives in either TX or OH. And Michelle Bachmann skewered Cain by describing 9-9-9 turned upside down as being "the devil in the details". I bet a more than a few Believers winced at the 666 reference!
R Mart (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 17:25
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Romney has been running for the last five years and remains at roughly 20%, even when he was running against only himself last summer. Romney's strategy is to destroy all opportunities for Republicans to reject him.
I agree with Jamelle, Perry is the most plausible Romney alternative but he needs to find a strong spot like townhalls or barnstorming. His debate skills aren't his strength. People are writing Perry off, but Perry has some Clinton attributes in that he will continously resurrect himself as he has done many times before.
patrickstrother (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 17:45
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It was crystal clear in the first debate that Perry just isn't smart enough to be President. He has done nothing to disprove that unfortunate reality since.
Gb Accounting (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 17:49
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Good article. Thans.
lukeliberty (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 18:37
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The only part I saw was Romney answering Perry on health care. It was the men against the boys, in favor of Romney. Perry supporters watching that had to cringe, and, if honest with themselves, acknowledge that Romney simply has a greater command of details. Romney and Perry both deserve kudos, btw, for their handling of healthcare and immigration issues, respectively, in a humane and pragmatic fashion.
SylvesterGACons... (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 19:15
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FACT: Roughly 75% of primary and caucus voters clearly want someone other than Romney as the GOP nominee. He has been running for POTUS continuously for about five years now and cannot seem to crack a 25% ceiling in the polls. Romney is a moderate, not a conservative. Regardless of his business acumen, he simply does not inspire the majority of voters who are likely to vote GOP. Several of his past positions are anathema to true conservatives and his flip-flopping doesn't just LOOK opportunistic; it IS opportunistic. We don't trust him.
FACT: Perry is a true limited-government conservative with a proven and successful executive track record. Under his governorship, Texas generated around 40% of the jobs that were created during this crappy Obamaconomy. Perry has never lost a race in his political career -- ever. He is a prodigious fund raiser, having recently raised $17 million in 7 weeks and he still has $15 million COH, an astonishly low burn rate. He is also the only candidate (with a realistic shot at winning) who can unite all 4 factions of the GOP (social, establishment, defense hawks, and Constitutional) in the primaries/caucuses and still attract enough youth, Hispanic, and independent voters in the general. Perry is not a good debater, but he is a very good retail campaigner on the campaign trail.
1996 -- the GOP establishment nominates moderate Bob Dole and, of course, loses. STRIKE ONE.
2008 -- the GOP establishment nominates moderate John McCain and, of course, loses. STRIKE TWO.
2012 -- the GOP establishment, true to form, demonstrates they have learned absolutely nothing by nominating yet another moderate, Mitt Romney? If they succeed in doing this, then it will be: STRIKE THREE and you're out, GOP!
In order to avert another disastrous defeat like Dole in 1996 and McCain in 2008, the roughly 75% of GOP primary and caucus voters who want someone other than Romney as the nominee need to start coalescing around Perry as the prospective nominee. Forget about early debate performances. Perry hasn't yet become comfortable with the "30-second sound bite" formats. So what? That doesn't matter because there is plenty of time for Perry to improve at that prior to any debates that will be scheduled during the general election season.
Pale pastels won't cut it this time around. What is required is a bold, stark, clear contrast between the conservative Republican approach to governing and the liberal Democrat approach. Times have changed and so has the mood of the electorate. "Business as usual" won't cut it. "Don't rock the boat too much" won't cut it. Mitt Romney is NOT the answer. When faced with a choice between Democrat or Democrat-Lite, what incentive would there be for an "independent" voter to go with the perceived lesser of two evils?
"Vote for me because I'm not quite as bad as the other guy!" does not an inspiring campaign message make. That is why Romney is emphatically the wrong choice for the nomination. While many of the other GOP candidates might be good choices for certain positions in a Perry administration, Perry is the only conservative GOP candidate with a realistic shot at winning not only the GOP nomination, but the general election as well. RE-ELECT PERRY-RUBIO 2016! Or maybe, RE-ELECT PERRY/WEST 2016!
Almost anybody would be a better choice than Romney for the GOP nominee. If it winds up being Romney, then I'll feel that I have no other choice but to do the same thing I did in 2008: vote Libertarian for POTUS and VPOTUS while voting Republican only in the down-ballot contests. No more RINOs. No more compromises. We need a President who will stick to the principles of limited government, right the ship of state, and set us on a course that will restore and preserve America's greatness for future generations.
If you aren't part of the solution, then you're part of the problem. Romney's track record suggests that other than on matters dealing with fiscal issues, we would not be able to rely on him to render decisions that would uphold the principles of true Constitutional conservatism. With Romney, for example, we probably wouldn't get another Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, or Alito on the Supreme Court. With Romney, we'd get another David Souter. That is unacceptable. With Perry, we could have it all: the House, Senate, the Presidency, and the Courts.
Lee Moody (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 19:39
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Why not Mitt for President ? He is ready to revive the economy and answer international other emergencies at 2 AM. .Herman Cain would make a great VP !
spikesbud (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 20:09
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A sound, balanced summary by Bouie who is a pleasant change from many of the nuts writing from both ends of the spectrum.
I thought the debate was rather good. The underdogs did the best they could to state their positions and to get something rolling. Bachmann showed why she appeared to be a strong candidate earlier. Cain stood out as the innovative thinker who didn't rattle. Perry wasn't the comedic disaster as in the prior debate. However, it seems he is incapable of being adequately prepared. It makes me wonder why. Is there something wrong with him? Is he somehow deficient? Romney was steady and dependable. He may be unexciting, plain vanilla, but that might be what the country needs. Exciting and dynamic hasn't worked out too well.
kegan05 (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 20:15
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I will vote for a REAL Leader and a REAL Commander in Chief, with a record of accomplishment in his State, instead of the Captain of the High School Debating Team.
Rick Perry has an A+ rating from NUMBERSUSA for is work on border security. He is the REAL DEAL.
The fact that Romney can't get above 26% is pathetic, especially after he has been campaigning for the past 5 years!
Perry/Gingrich 2012!
mark (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 22:43
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"Oh Swagger, Where Art Thou?"
went to bed with the same opinion, down to the "swagger" part.
the only other governor,romney, was governor, once, over a homogenous state, 5 years removed from office.
perry has been governor for what will be 12 years, over one of the most diverse states in the union. Their state economy is the equivalent of the entire mexican economy, 1.3 trillion. 25 million people. He has service in the military...i believe the only one in the field.
this guy should be crushing this field, or at least walk into the room with belief in himself.
the debate style isn't that conducive, but he needs to pull a combo of herman cain and w.
question comes...it's your turn to speak, say WHATEVER you want. go folksy and slow it down. we aren't hiring a president to run the register. we are asking him to watch over the guys running it.
as for the folksy...this guy came from nowhere. needs to remind folks that he wasn't a product of a political family, keeping in mind that romeny is the '2nd generation' romney to run for president.
he's not my candidate, but a person of this quality should not be out there wallowing. he needs to buck up and have some pride.
Dleet86 (not verified)
Wed, 2011-10-12 23:26
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Why is Ron Paul not even mentioned? TV talking heads do the same thing with his name on the screen, they skip him and go down to 5th place in one recap to find Perry, though Paul was right there in 3rd. He also hit Cain with the best swipe of the night, re: Fed Reserve Audit by GAO. An audit every citizen should read and it's followup do to be released Oct 18th
Sskano (not verified)
Thu, 2011-10-13 00:05
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Perry is on too many pain pills. One of these days he is going to fall asleep during a debate.
karen (not verified)
Thu, 2011-10-13 01:16
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The problem with your analysis is that it's not correct. Organization and money do not elect Presidents, We the people do. 70% of primary voters do not want Romney as the nominee. A couple of polls have Herman Cain as the front runner, one has him at 8% over Romney. He is resonating. How can Herman Cain be a long shot if the majority of primary voters decide to pull the lever for him at the polling booth?
Ahim Anyd (not verified)
Thu, 2011-10-13 03:03
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http://adf.ly/2FdAj miracles of the world
Aaron Obrien (not verified)
Thu, 2011-10-13 10:20
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Ron Paul isn't even mentioned once? Wow that's just bad journalism.
bottes ugg (not verified)
Tue, 2011-10-18 04:09
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But he was right about the Family Values they bring the same family
values that made Mexico and Latin American Third World Slums and a
Cesspool of Crime, Corruption, Poverty and Misery across the Border with
them.Some of those values being Education hating, Prolific breeding,
Gang joining, Corruption, Love of Welfare and hater of American its
Laws, Constitution and Citizens!Under Bush Jr. the Stupid Republicans
increased federal spending at twice the rate of Bill Clinton