PREDICTIONS. I'll do Rob one better on the hedging front. All I know in my stolen youth is last-minute political disappointment and pain, as Ezra and the other rugrats around here will no doubt also attest. Steve and Ryan Grim's cautionary notes about the new GOP surge talk are semi-convincing, but I think some Scheiberian jitters are still warranted. People always note the obvious but sometimes forget to absorb it -- the GOP has much more money than the Democrats. Republicans have the ability to saturate media markets with ads in the last few days of the elections. They are doing so. It's relevant. (And this is the case even leaving aside the suppression and robo-calling and shenanigans that the NRCC and other national Republican entities are currently engaging in with brazen shamelessness and gusto.) And, as Matt pointed out to me yesterday, it's also worth pausing for a moment to consider that the Senate polling is generally more detailed and reliable than various district level House polls, and is currently less Dem-favorable than the House numbers. So here's my take:

  • House: Democrats +19
  • Senate: Democrats +3 (with the suprise being Steele defeating the sleepy Cardin in Maryland)
  • Governors: +6

I hasten to stress, though, that this result would have been considered an unambiguously positive outcome for Democrats just a few months ago, and that it still should be considered as such. I think commenter theCoach got this exactly right.

--Sam Rosenfeld

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