A Quick Dose of Election Skepticism.

Daniel Larison, who has an excellent record of predicting election outcomes, isn't convinced that Republicans will win the House in November:

Based on CQPolitics’ rankings, available funding and recent polling, I count 25 Democratic House seats that will most likely change hands, 4 Republican House seats (including HI-01) that will become Democratic seats in November, and 16 genuine toss-ups. This doesn’t include FL-25, which is an intriguing and weird race that bears watching and might be an unexpected Democratic pick-up. Even if the Republicans win all of those toss-ups (which is not likely), they will not have enough net seats to take the majority.

While I'm mostly sure that John Boehner will be Speaker come January, Larison's skepticism is worth noting; Nate Silver gives Republicans a two-in-three chance of winning the House, which means that Democrats have a one-in-three chance of saving their majority. Those aren't high numbers, but they aren't trifling either, especially in light of the generic ballot, where Democrats and Republicans are close, and the fact that election season has just begun, and Democratic voters are only now beginning to tune in to politics.

Again, all signs point to large Republican gains, but it's worth considering the opposite -- and only somewhat unlikely -- perspective, since the election isn't here yet, and things are still pretty fluid.

-- Jamelle Bouie

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