ROCK BOTTOM. Word on the street is that Larry Brown will be leaving as coach of the New York Knicks soon in order to be replaced by catastrophic general manager Isiah Thomas. Superficially, I think this move will lead to Thomas' vindication -- Brown's squad played so poorly this season that they're almost certain to do better next year as a matter of regression toward the mean. Not well, but better.

Similarly, my fear is that since Bush's poll numbers are so very low right now that he's almost destined for a small rebound into the mid thirties or so. Since mathematical illiteracy is more-or-less required to get a job writing about politics, this bounce will be attributed to Bush's new border plan and to the latest NSA revelations painting Democrats as weak. Then there's going to be pressure on congressional leaders to panic and give up the fight on these topics. Be that as it may, the point is that given the absence of some massive economic calamity, Bush's approval rating right now is sort of shockingly low and almost certain to go up somewhat. Whenever that happens, people need to stay calm.

--Matthew Yglesias

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