TACTICAL SHIFT. Good stuff this morning on shifting insurgent tactics and attacks on helicopters. As Josh Marshall notes, the cause seems to be a shift or development in tactics, rather than the acquisition of new weapons. Most of the reports of the crashes have concentrated on small arms fire as the cause. However, Defense Tech has some reports that suggest al-Qaeda cells may be using shoulder-fired SAMs, and both the January 20th attack and the latest attack may well have involved missiles. Yglesias brings up an important point connecting this question to the debate over Iranian arms supply to insurgents. Iraqi insurgents have thus far exhibited tactics and used weapons that are by and large crude compared to Hezbollah. Were Iran serious about helping the insurgents, they could at the least supply much more effective weaponry, if not the extensive tactical experience that Hezbollah has developed. One reason why Iran, and states in general, don't supply insurgents with extremely dangerous and effective weapons like shoulder-fired SAMs is that the SAM doesn't respect political ideology or national boundary, and thus can become a threat to the provider. Nevertheless, those asserting that Iran is playing a major role in supplying the insurgency have to explain why the evidence for Iranian involvement is so weak, given Iran's obvious capability to create havoc. --Robert Farley