Andrew Gelman

Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. He has received the Outstanding Statistical Application award from the American Statistical Association, the award for best article published in the American Political Science Review, and the Council of Presidents of Statistical Societies award for outstanding contributions by a person under the age of 40.

Recent Articles

Art Buchwald must be spinning in his grave

From the Washington Post: (link from here ) As Jay Livingston points out , the Post’s lolcat is not only ridiculous on its own, it also doesn’t fit with the first paragraph of the news story.

The Campaign Fallacy

In his most recent New York Times column , David Brooks falls into a common trap of political reporting, mixing concerns of policy and campaigning. Brooks writes: Democrats can win elections in this climate if they defuse the Big Government/Small Government ideological debate. With his Third Way approach, Bill Clinton established that he was not a Big Government liberal. Once he crossed that threshold, he could get voters to think about his individual policies, which were actually quite popular. What wins elections? To answer this question, I start with political scientist Steven Rosenstone’s 1983 book, Forecasting Presidential Elections. There’s been a lot of research on the topic since then, but Rosenstone’s basic findings remain. The #1 thing the incumbent party’s candidate wants is strong economic growth in the year leading up to the election. Beyond this, it helps to be ideologically moderate. So yes, we have every reason to believe that Clinton’s moderation won him votes, but...