Dean Baker

Recent Articles

The New York Times Doesn't Like Social Security

That is what readers could infer from Jackie Calmes' blognote in which she listed Social Security alongside Medicare and Medicaid as "fast-growing entitlement benefit program." Social Security is projected to grow at a 5.3 percent annual rate over the next decade, only slightly faster than the 4.4 percent projected growth rate of nominal GDP over this period. By comparison, Medicare is projected to grow at a 7.0 percent annual rate.

Wrong Surprise on Retail Sales

The media reported on a 0.3 percent rise in retail sales in February, which was described as a surprisingly strong result compared with the consensus expectation of a 0.2 percent decline. However, the news was not as good as this may appear, since January's sales data was revised down by 0.4 percent. In other words, the sales volume reported for February was almost exactly in line with the consensus estimate, even though the January number is less than had previously been believed. (There does appear to be some upward movement in non-auto sales.)

--Dean Baker

The Dollar, the Deficit, and Accounting Identities

It would be great if people who reported on the budget deficit for major news outlets could be required to know the basic accounting identities that get taught in every introductory economics class. The key one that almost none of them seem to know is that the trade deficit (X-M) is equal to the sum of public and private savings (T-G)+(S-I). This identity means that if the United States is running a trade deficit, then the sum of public and private savings must also be negative. That has to be true -- it is an identity. It's just like 2 + 2 = 4. It is always true.

Post Pulls Out the Stops In Pushing Its Trade Agenda

The Washington Post is a huge supporter of trade agreements like NAFTA that put non-college educated workers in direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world, while largely protecting the most highly educated workers like doctors and lawyers. They push this selective protectionism by calling it "free trade." They also call anyone who disagrees with their agenda of selective protectionism, which is designed to redistribute income upward, a protectionist.

The paper really outdid itself today with a front page editorial that used the term "free trade" in the headline and 7 other times in a 900 word article.

--Dean Baker

The Washington Post Is STILL Missing the Housing Bubble

The Post had a front page article with a headline warning readers that a "new round of foreclosures threatens housing market." Yes, well actually a huge oversupply of housing created by the bubble-driven construction boom is virtually certain to push prices back down to their trend level.

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