Jay Greene

Recent Articles

Forecasting Follies

Using models to predict presidential elections can be fun. Too bad they don't work.

Like most political junkies during the summer of 1992, I closely followed every news report and analysis to see who was winning the presidential race. Yet political science colleagues told me it was unnecessary to pay attention to the twists and turns of the campaign since we already knew who was going to win. A number of social scientists had developed models that could predict the outcome of presidential elections months before anybody had cast a ballot.