John Sides

John Sides is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at George Washington University.

Recent Articles

What If North Korea Collapsed?

Based on optimistic assumptions about how a collapse might occur, we estimate that 260,000–400,000 ground force personnel would be required to stabilize North Korea. This means that even in the relatively benign scenario that we describe, the requirements for stabilizing a collapsed North Korea would outpace the combined U.S. troop commitments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Managing a more demanding Korean collapse scenario would push these requirements higher or lengthen the duration of the operation, or possibly both.

The Economy in Iowa Isn't Too Bad (But Don't Forget the Big Picture)!

In response to Michael Lewis-Beck’s guest post below, the New York Times Washington Bureau Chief David Leonhardt tweets:

Conclusion seems either off or old. IA’s UE rate is still 6% & risen much less than US vs 12/07.

Hard to Remember Things: Birthdays, Appointments, How Much TV You Watch

The short answer: not very well.  That’s the subject of my first post over at the Washington Post’s polling blog, Behind the Numbers.  It features this graph from 

Do GOP Voters Care About Electability?

Alex Lundry and I have a new post up at Model Politics. In a YouGov survey from last week, we included an experiment. After GOP voters had been asked which candidate they supported in the primary, we randomly assigned them to see Intrade probabilities for the GOP nomination, for the general election, or both. Then we asked them a second time which candidate they supported.  The goal was to see whether knowing something about electability would change their preferences. Indeed, it did: