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John Sides

John Sides is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at George Washington University.

Recent Articles

Is Obama More Popular Then He Should Be?

John SidesMay 02, 2012

I tackle that question in a new post at 538.  The analysis involves constructing a model of presidential approval from 1948-2008 and forecasting values for Obama.  On average he is about nine points more popular than the model would predict.  Out-of-sample predictions for Obama and past presidents are here (click to enlarge):

GOP Unitymentum!

John SidesApr 23, 2012

Following on this post, here is a tidbit from a new PPP poll:

Romney’s seen a massive improvement in his personal favorability numbers over the last 2 months as GOP voters have unified around him. He’s gone from a -28 spread (29/57) up to a -12 one (39/51). Most of the improvement has come with Republicans, going from 43/41 to 67/22. His numbers with Democrats are steady and he’s seen a little bit of improvement with independents from 32/55 to 36/50, although he remains unpopular.

Who Is the Nate Silver of the 2012 Race?

John SidesApr 07, 2012
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So asks Ben Jacobs at the Daily Beast.  The profile is here.  Josh’s blog is Frontloading Headquarters.

How I Think About Presidential Elections Forecasts

John SidesApr 02, 2012
(Flickr / Derek A)

Nate Silver’s newest critique of presidential election forecasting models has been making the rounds.  He was kind enough to publish my response to his critique late last week while I was traveling, so I want to highlight it now.  The essence of my response is this:

Predicting the Supreme Court Vote

John SidesMar 29, 2012
Flickr

This is from political scientist Michael Evans, and was originally posted to a law and courts listserv.  I thank him for sending it along:

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I was curious about the relative number of words directed at the two sides in yesterday’s oral argument and thought the results would be of interest here.

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