Joshua Tucker

Joshua Tucker is a professor of Politics at New York University with an affiliate appointment in the Department of Russian and Slavic Studies and New York University-Abu Dhabi. His major field is comparative politics with an emphasis on mass politics, including elections and voting, the development of partisan attachment, public opinion formation, and, political protest.

Recent Articles

AP Suggests Obama has a Donor Problem — What does the Empirical Evidence Have to Say?

With Nate Silver asking today whether Obama is toast in 2012 , I thought it would be a good time to revisit an AP story last week about Obama’s supposed donor problem . The AP reported that: Tens of thousands of people who together gave millions of dollars to Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign have gone missing this time around. Their failure to give so far may signal that some of the president’s earliest supporters have lost enthusiasm. I was initially a bit suspicious of this conclusion – namely because in 2007 Obama was heading into a hotly contested primary race while in 2011 he is not, so I reached out to Adam Bonica , a Stanford University political scientist and expert on political donations to campaigns. Following the success of John’s recent dialogue format posts , I recast our emails as a Q&A: Q (me): Is it correct to conclude, as the AP report noted, that “ larger donations are the strongest signs of enthusiasm “? A (Bonica): I don’t think this is really the case...

Post-Election Report: Kyrgyz President

As part of our continuing series of election reports , we are pleased to welcome Matteo Fumagalli of Central European University with the following post-election report on Sunday’s Kyrgyz presidential elections . ********** Kyrgyzstan’s presidential elections, held on Sunday 30 October, resulted in an overwhelming victory for the front-runner, Almazbek Atambayev, the small Central Asian republic’s prime minister since December 2010. Atambayev becomes the country’s fourth president, following Askar Akaev (1990-2005, ousted during the so-called Tulip Revolution), Kurmanbek Bakiev (2005-2010, whose rule also ended abruptly) and Roza Otunbaeva, who presided over the launch of a new constitution, new parliamentary elections in October 2010, but also a dramatic and bloody descent into chaos in June 2010 as the government witnessed powerless clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the southern city of Osh, which left several hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands displaced. Background Widely...

Quick Thoughts on Greek Referendum

The media and financial markets are abuzz over the decision of the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s decision to hold a referendum on whether to approve the current EU bail out plan for Greece and its many conditions for reform and austerity in Greece (see for example here , here , and here ). While most attention is being focused on the short term effects of the decision on the markets and internal Greek politics, as well as the long term consequences of the referendum for Greece’s membership in the Euro and wider European (and global) financial stability, I want to address the referendum itself. In a series of publications with a number of different co-authors, * I have examined the causes of attitudes towards EU membership in post-communist countries considering membership in the EU (see here and here ) and then again in the actual referendum on EU membership in Poland ( here ). In all three articles, the overwhelming empirical lesson is clear: economic winners are more...

Post-Election Report: Ireland President

In our continuing series of election reports , we are pleased to welcome the following post-election report from Theresa Reidy of University College Cork: ******************** Michael D Higgins was elected the ninth President of Ireland on Saturday, 29 October 2011 with over one million votes. Higgins was the candidate from the Labour Party, the second largest party in parliament. A frontrunner for much of the campaign, he slipped into second place in the two weeks before the election before re-emerging as the overwhelming choice of the public, securing 39.6% of the first preference vote. The position of President of Ireland has come vacant on thirteen occasions and there have been seven elections. Elections take place using the Alternative Vote system. There are three entry routes into the presidential election; an outgoing president may nominate themselves, 20 members of parliament may nominate a candidate and finally, a candidate can secure a nomination vote by four county councils...

Post-Election Report: Argentina

In our continuing series of election reports , we welcome political scientists Natalia C. Del Cogliano and Mariana L. Prats with the following post-election report on last week’s Argentinian elections: ******* The fact that this report could largely have been written two months ago right after primaries were held is a reality we cannot avoid. Is uncertainty in results a necessary condition for elections in a democratic context? It seems not. Besides the unhappy claims of the opposition saying that there has been fraud in the primary elections , the final results provided by the National Judicial Power rejected such a possibility. And the citizens of Argentina reconfirmed it on Sunday, October 23. In August, the primaries resulted in a difference of 8.150.000 votes (38.04%) between current President (Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Frente para la Victoria) and the runner-up candidate Ricardo Alfonsín (Unión Cívica Radical/Unión para el Desarrollo Social) a difference that was not easy...

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