It's always hard to predict what's going to happen in a presidential race that's a year or two away -- back in 1991, when George H.W. Bush was riding high, somebody actually bet me $100 that no Democrat would beat him in the next year's election. But if you're a Republican today, there are two ways to look at 2012.
Quick question: How many cell-phone chargers are there in your home? If you're like most people these days, you've got a few surplus ones lying at the bottom of a drawer. You can't use them, because they only fit a phone you no longer have. But it somehow seems wrong to just toss them in a landfill. Wouldn't it make sense for every phone to use the same kind of charger?
It could be that way, if only we lived under one-world government, which they almost do in Europe, as Ars Technica tells us:
White House senior political adviser David Axelrod. (Flickr/Talk Radio News)
When Judge Vaughn Walker ruled in favor of the plaintiffs in Perry v. Schwarzenegger, the case challenging California's Proposition 8, which outlawed same-sex marriage in the state, plenty of people predicted Democrats would feel a backlash this fall. After all, many believe the events of 2003 and 2004 -- when the Massachusetts Supreme Court declared that gays be allowed to marry in the state, and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome started issuing marriage licenses to gay couples -- helped George W. Bush win re-election by mobilizing conservatives to vote for state bans on gay marriage.
Ross Douthat's job as a New York Times columnist, like that of his colleague David Brooks, is basically to be a conservative liberals will listen to. Douthat is famously conflicted about same-sex marriage; he's opposed to it, but he has trouble articulating exactly why in a way that doesn't come down to religious dogma.