Pat Buchanan is a serious subject because he is a serious America Firster who might get a considerable fraction of the vote for president this year. It seems quite possible, at this writing, that though now at only 4 percent in the polls, he will be the Reform Party nominee for president with $12.6 million in federal money to burn. This phenomenon--Perot to Buchanan to Chance--and the oncoming Green Party candidacy of Ralph Nader, who is running at 7 percent in the polls, introduce the passing likelihood that as a result of this election the United States may shift from a two-party to a four-party system in 2004.