The Votemaster

"The Votemaster" is the guy behind electoral-vote.com, which the Prospect has teamed up with to bring you polling analysis and predictions for the 2012 election. You can find out more about him by clicking here.

Recent Articles

Thu, Oct. 25 Electoral Vote Predictor

Today's election-news roundup

The Battle for the West Heats Up While much of the campaign has been going on along the Atlantic coast (New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida) and in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio), the West has been somewhat neglected. Nominally, there are three Western swing states: New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, but New Mexico has become so blue that it is really off the table now. Of the others, Colorado is the bigger prize (9 EVs) but Nevada (6 EVs) is also worth having. To emphasize that he hasn't written off the West, right after the third presidential debate Mitt Romney flew to Nevada for a rally, then went on to Colorado for another one, at the Red Rocks Amphitheater, where he spoke to an estimated 12,000 fired up supporters. Neither candidate regards Colorado as a "must win" state, in the sense of Ohio or even Virginia, but if Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, Colorado will become crucial. If this scenario prevails, the election results won't be...

Wed, Oct. 17 Electoral Vote Predictor

Supreme Court Refuses to Block Early Voting in Ohio With a one-sentence decision reading "The application for stay presented to Justice Kagan and by her referred to the Court is denied," the U.S. Supreme Court has extricated itself from a case that increased the chances that President Obama would win Ohio and the election. Briefly recapping the situation, early voting has already started in Ohio. However, the Republican Secretary of State, Jon Husted, decided to close the polls on the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday before election day except for military families. They would be allowed to vote then, but nobody else would. The Obama campaign took the state to court on the grounds that there was no valid reason to allow one class of voters to get three extra days and not others. Husted knew very well, of course, that the majority of people who vote the weekend before the election are Democrats, many of them lower-income voters who can't take off from work on election day. The Sixth...

Mon, Oct. 15 Electoral Vote Predictor

Obama Leads in Early Voting Early voting has started in over 40 states and 7 percent of the voters have already cast their ballots. These votes have broken strongly for President Obama, 59 percent to 31 percent, according to a new Ipsos poll . Both campaigns are urging their supporters to vote early because a vote banked early can't change, even if the candidate stumbles later. Typically, strong partisans are the ones who vote early. Fence sitters tend to wait until the last minute. Click here for full story

Sat, Oct. 13 Electoral Vote Predictor

Another Poll Shows Biden Won the Vice-Presidential Debate An Ipsos poll released yesterday gave Joe Biden a victory over Paul Ryan of 42 percent to 35 percent, with the rest undecided. Biden also won the CBS snap poll 50 percent to 31 percent but lost the CNN snap poll 44 percent to 48 percent. So the bottom line seems to be that Biden had two large wins and one small loss among the three major polls of the debate. Click here for full story

Fri, Oct. 12 Electoral Vote Predictor

Biden Ends Democratic Freakout After President Obama's lackluster performance in the first presidential debate, Democrats were tearing their hair out, wondering if Obama was actually interested in having a second term. He seemed bored and afraid to fight Romney. Those accusations will not be leveled at Joe Biden for his performance in the vice-presidential debate. Biden was at the top of his game, fired up, attacking Representative Paul Ryan at every turn, and raising all the points Obama failed to raise. He did what Obama should have done and failed to do: fire up his own base while at the same time appearing reasonable to independents. Click here for full story

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