The Votemaster

"The Votemaster" is the guy behind electoral-vote.com, which the Prospect has teamed up with to bring you polling analysis and predictions for the 2012 election. You can find out more about him by clicking here.

Recent Articles

Tue, Oct. 02 Electoral Vote Predictor

Romney To Broaden Focus When Mitt Romney started his 2012 campaign, he basically assumed that all he had to do to win was point out to people that the economy was in the toilet. As it turns out, the voters already knew that and before giving him the keys to the White House, they want to know how he is going to fix the economy. Since he doesn't want to discuss his economic plan in any detail other than "tax cuts" and seems to be falling farther and farther behind, he is now considering broadening his attacks, hitting President Obama on energy, health care, taxes, and spending. Note that what he is talking about doing is more attacking. He is not planning to tell people why they should vote for him, just why they should not vote for Obama. For whatever reason, he can't get out of attack mode. The problem with that approach so far is that although he may convince people that Obama is far from perfect, he hasn't even tried to make the case that he is better. Traditionally, re-election...

Mon, Oct. 01 Electoral Vote Predictor

The Shadow of the Debates Looms Large Both President Obama and Mitt Romney are preparing for the first debate Wednesday. Dozens of surrogates are preparing people for a miserable performance from their candidate. The idea is that if the candidate does not drool all over his tie, he can be declared the winner. It is not clear why they bother. People will watch the debate and decide what they think based on what they see, not based on how low the candidate's spinners have managed to set the bar. Team Romney has announced it has some real zingers it is going to hurl at Obama. In contrast, Obama said he is going to be serious and not aim for clever sound bites. But as every comedian knows all too well, good comedy requires not only good lines, but a sense of timing and pacing—qualities that Romney is not known for. If his lines fall flat, he is going to become fodder for the late-night comedians, who do have good stage presence. Even more-or-less-serious pundits are already suggesting...

Sun, Sep. 30 Electoral Vote Predictor

Republican Strategists Tell Romney to Stop Playing It Safe Mitt Romney is using a campaign strategy of running out the clock, something appropriate for an incumbent who is ahead but not for a challenger who is behind. Numerous Republicans are pleading with him to break out and do something bold. Suggestions include going to the site of the Keystone XL pipeline that President Obama has put on hold and talk to unemployed workers who want to build it or even just going to diners and talking to voters. But Romney refuses to do these things, possibly because his handlers are afraid he will make a gaffe that becomes the news for a day or more. So he sticks to reciting his prepared remarks in carefully staged settings and avoids all retail politics. While there had been endless discussion about whether Romney is conservative enough or too conservative or too rich or too secretive or too whatever, one aspect of the choice of him as nominee hasn't gotten much attention: He is not a good...

Sat, Sep. 29 Electoral Vote Predictor

How Does the Presidential Race Compare to Previous Ones? One way to measure the presidential race is to compare the national Gallup poll now to national Gallup polls taken on or close to this date in previous years to see their predictive value. Talking Points Memo has collected the data, and here it is . The notation D+6 means the Democrat was ahead by 6 points, etc. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk. Click here for full story

Fri, Sep. 28 Electoral Vote Predictor

You Are the 100 Millionth Visitor When I started this site in 2004, it was a bit of a lark and just for a few friends. Yesterday it passed the 100-million visitor mark . Thanks for coming by! Swing-State Voters Oppose Changes to Medicare A new Kaiser poll in Florida among registered voters shows that 80% think Medicare is very important or extremely important for their vote and by a margin of 53% to 38% they prefer Obama rather than Romney to handle the matter. Recent polls have shown Obama with a small but consistent lead in Florida, no doubt due in part to Florida's many seniors (in 2008, 20% of Florida's voters were at least 65). In retrospect, Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate may have been a mistake, since his plan to change Medicare from a defined benefit program to a defined contribution program is wildly unpopular in Florida, the most important swing state of all. Furthermore, Ryan's plan is also unpopular in Ohio and Virginia, the second and fourth biggest...

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