The Votemaster

"The Votemaster" is the guy behind electoral-vote.com, which the Prospect has teamed up with to bring you polling analysis and predictions for the 2012 election. You can find out more about him by clicking here.

Recent Articles

Tue, Sep. 25 Electoral Vote Predictor

Ryan Became Romney Instead of Romney Becoming Ryan Conservatives who cheered Mitt Romney's selection of Representative Paul Ryan, a Republican from Wisconsin, as his running mate in the hope this indicated a more aggressive, more conservative stance for Romney have been sorely disappointed . They had expected Ryan's bold style to rub off on Romney. Instead, it is the other way: Ryan has become muted and vague, like Romney. The problem is certainly not Ryan. All vice-presidential candidates know who is the boss and Ryan is surely doing precisely what his boss wants: looking sharp but be vague about all the details. In the six weeks since he was tapped, Ryan hasn't given a single national press conference, although he has done interviews for local media outlets—which typically don't push the interviewee very hard. His stump speech rarely mentions his plan to replace Medicare with a voucher system. Instead, he attacks President Obama and plays up his bow hunting abilities and working-...

Mon, Sep. 24 Electoral Vote Predictor

Can Romney Duplicate Bush's 2004 Path on the Electoral College? In 2004, George Bush won 31 states and 286 electoral votes. An obvious question is: "Can Romney follow Bush's path?" The answer appears to be no. If Romney were to win all the Bush states, he would have 292 electoral votes due to changes from the 2010 census. For starters, New Mexico looks hopeless and Iowa not much better bringing Romney from 292 to 281, still enough to win though. Increasingly, Ohio looks tough for him. Without its 18 electoral votes, he is down to 263 and a loss. Furthermore, Virginia is looking ever more Democratic. Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina are tossups now. Unless something changes quickly, the Bush path is not going to work for Romney. Republicans Advise Romney to Be Himself in Debates Mitt Romney has changed his positions so many times that nobody knows who he is and what he stands for. Republican operatives are advising him to just be himself in the debates. He should claim to...

Sun, Sep. 23 Electoral Vote Predictor

Polls Aren't Moving, Both Sides Worried The bounce President Obama got from the Democratic convention shows no sign of fading and both sides are worried. One reason the polls are not moving is that people have made up their minds and there are hardly any voters left to swing. A large fraction are not really strongly for either candidate but are strongly against one of them. One voter said he'd vote for Saddam Hussein before he'd vote for Barack Hussein but another called Romney the devil. Not much motion is likely there. Romney's team can read the handwriting on the wall and the pixels on the monitor and is trying to put on a brave face, saying : "We've got a campaign which is tied with an incumbent president [of] the United States." The team knows that in the national polls, it is fairly close, but in this graph of the electoral college Romney has been behind all year and is now down 122 electoral votes. They feel that some fundamentals (such as the poor jobs situation) put them in a...

Sat, Sep. 22 Electoral Vote Predictor

Obama Leads in Poll of Swing States A new Purple Strategies poll of 12 swing states shows President Obama with a lead of 49% to 44% over Mitt Romney. In August, the same poll had Romney ahead by 1%, so this is a sharp swing towards Obama. Part of Romney's problem is that only 38% of the voters see him in a favorable light vs. 52% who regard him unfavorably. Obama's favorability is above water with 49% to 46%. Romney Releases 2011 Tax Return, Paid 14% Willard M. Romney has released his 379-page tax return . His income was $13.69 million, of which $450,740 was earned (business) income. The rest was mostly interest, dividends, and capital gains. He paid $1.9 million in federal tax. Below is the income portion of Romney's tax return. Click here for full story

Fri, Sep. 21 Electoral Vote Predictor

Conservatives Working on Their Get-Out-The-Vote Campaign Conservative groups are getting ready for a massive get-out-the-vote campaign on (and before) election day. Groups such as the National Rifle Association and College Republicans, as well as billionaire-backed superPACs are setting up a highly sophisticated operation to match or surpass what the Democrats set up in 2008. The effort has many facets. In Florida, a new law passed by the Republican-controlled legislature inhibited Democratic registration efforts. In Wisconsin, the Democrats' attempt to recall Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) allowed conservative groups to test their house-by-house voter outreach strategy. In Ohio, 10,000 churches in rural areas have been enlisted to distribute two million voter guides. The Citizens United decision is allowing the Republican effort to be far better funded and organized than anything John McCain could have even dreamed about in 2008. Billionaire David Koch is spending $125 million in the 2012...

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