The Votemaster

"The Votemaster" is the guy behind electoral-vote.com, which the Prospect has teamed up with to bring you polling analysis and predictions for the 2012 election. You can find out more about him by clicking here.

Recent Articles

How Can the Republican Party Pressure Akin to Leave the Race?

The entire Republican leadership wants Todd Akin to withdraw from the Missouri Senate race. There are several ways they can make their point to him. First, cut off his money supply. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has canceled a $5 million ad buy for him. Second, Akin is not well known statewide and now no established Republican will campaign with him. Third, they will deny him coveted slots at national events, such as next week's Republican National Convention. Fourth, they will make it known to anti-abortion groups that elephants never forget and any support or funding they provide Akin will be duly noted and thrown back in their faces next time they want something from the party. Fifth, they will deny him use of the Republican infrastructure, including the use of phone banks and get-out-the-vote workers. It is also possible that they have a carrot or two for him if he goes gracefully. These could include paying off his campaign debts (if any) and getting him a good job...

Missouri Republican Senate Primary Today

Three Republicans are going head to head today for the Missouri Republican nomination to face off against Senator Claire McCaskill in November. They are former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (who has the backing of Sarah Palin), Representative Todd Akin (whom McCaskill clearly prefers because he is the most conservative of the trio) and wealthy businessman John Brunner. A new PPP poll puts Brunner first at 35 percent, Akin second at 30 percent, and Steelman last at 25 percent. But with 10 percent of the voters undecided, an upset is certainly possible.

Romney Starts His Foreign Trip with a Series of Gaffes

For someone as cautious as Mitt Romney, it is surprising that within a day of arriving in Britain, he made a number of gaffes that have been widely reported in both the British and American press . When Romney commented that the security around the Olympics was not quite up to snuff, British Prime Minister David Cameron shot back: "We are holding an Olympic Games in one of the busiest, most active, bustling cities anywhere in the world. Of course it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere" (a pointed reference to Romney's management of the Winter Olympics in Utah in 2002). But even Romney's attempt at praise fell flat when he acknowledged America's shared Anglo-Saxon heritage with the U.K., forgetting that the majority of Americans trace their roots to Central Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia rather than Britain. Politicians make gaffes all the time, but given that the only purpose of this trip is to make Romney look presidential, insulting his hosts is...

Ads Succeed in Making Voters Dislike Both Candidates

The early barrage of negative ads has made voters dislike both Obama and Romney. A new poll shows that 43 percent of Americans hold a somewhat or very negative view of President Obama (up from 37 percent a year ago) and 40 percent have a somewhat or very negative view of Mitt Romney (up from 26 percent a year ago). Historically these are very high negatives for so early in the season. The vast amount of negative advertising on tap for the Fall is only going to make it worse. It will be a miracle if the winner can govern at all with half the country hating him. Romney SuperPACs Have Spent $144 Million so Far Republican SuperPACs have been running television ads at a furious rate, spending $144 million on general election ads in swing states so far. All of them are negative ads attacking President Obama rather than praising Mitt Romney's business expertise. Karl Rove's two groups, Crossroads GPS and American Crossroads, together have spent $94 million on TV ads, five times as much as...

Can Pawlenty or Portman Bring in His State?

Insiders are expecting Mitt Romney to go with a conventional choice for his running mate. Picking a new and exciting candidate, like Republican Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana or Susan Martinez of New Mexico, runs the danger of having an unvetted candidate make a blunder, which calls Romney's judgment into question. Unlike John McCain, Romney was never a daredevil fighter pilot. He always tries to minimize risk. For this reason, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Ohio Senator Rob Portman are the most likely picks. They are solid Republican Midwesterners who are unlikely to embarrass Romney. One of the things a Veep candidate is supposed to do is bring in his own state. What are the chances of this happening? The table below shows how Minnesota and Ohio have gone since World War II. Minnesota Ohio Year Democrat Republican Dem % GOP % Winner Dem % GOP % Winner 2008 Obama McCain 54 44 Dem 51 47 Dem 2004 Kerry Bush 51 48 Dem 49 51 GOP 2000 Gore Bush 48 46 Dem 46 50 GOP 1996...

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