The Votemaster

"The Votemaster" is the guy behind electoral-vote.com, which the Prospect has teamed up with to bring you polling analysis and predictions for the 2012 election. You can find out more about him by clicking here.

Recent Articles

Presidential Race Tightening in New Mexico

The presidential race appears to be tightening in New Mexico, where Obama's former lead of 15 points has dwindled to 5 points. Polls have shown that if Romney picks Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM) as his running mate, he has a decent shot at winning the state, not to mention gaining more votes among women and Latinos. Martinez has said she doesn't want the job because she has to care for her elderly father and ill sister, but couldn't Romney could offer to hire a team of registered nurses to take care of them full time? Today's Presidential Polls State Obama Romney Start End Pollster New Jersey 49% 38% Jul 09 Jul 15 Quinnipiac U. New Mexico 49% 44% Jul 13 Jul 16 PPP Virginia 47% 46% Jul 16 Jul 17 Rasmussen Today's Senate Polls State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster New Jersey Bob Menendez 47% Joseph Kyrillos 34% Jul 09 Jul 15 Quinnipiac U.

Wealthy Republican Senate Candidates Picking Up Steam

A number of self-funded Republicans embroiled in bitter primary fights for Senate nominations are getting traction . These include Wil Cardon in Arizona (running against Represenatative Jeff Flake), Eric Hovde in Wisconsin (running against former governor Tommy Thompson and Representative Mark Neumann), John Brunner in Missouri (running against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin), and Linda McMahon in Connecticut (running against former representative Chris Shays). None of them have held elective office before, which means they have no record for opposition researchers to pick apart. On the other hand, all of them are Tea Party favorites, and recent history shows that when a Tea Party candidate defeats the establishment favorite in the primary, the Democrats are often able to hang onto a seat they would otherwise have lost (think: Delaware, Colorado, and Nevada in 2010). In all four of the above cases, the late date of the primary makes the problem even...

New Study Finds Voter-ID Laws Burdensome

Flickr/76803040@N04
Ten states have recently passed laws requiring voters to present government-issued photo identification before they can vote. Ostensibly, these laws are to prevent voter fraud. However, a study by nonpartisan university researchers at NYU's Brennan Center for Justice has shown that voter fraud is microscopic ( e.g. , 0.00004% of the votes in the 2004 Ohio election were fraudulent); the penalty for getting caught is so large (5 years in prison), and the effect of one vote so small, that nobody risks it. The very occasional fraudulent vote is invariably from an ex-felon or green-card holder who mistakenly thought he had the right to vote. Nevertheless, states persist in passing voter ID laws. Why? As the study shows, the real effect of these laws is to disenfranchise low-income voters who are disproportionately minorities and Democrats. The legislators who pass voter-ID laws and the governors who sign them (invariably, Republicans) know this very well. By making poor people, who often...

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