The Monkey Cage

We are professors of political science.

One man’s outlier is another man’s high-leverage case

Nate Silver, over at fivethirtyeight, objects to the conventional wisdom that Herman Cain, despite his place in the polls, has little chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee. That wisdom, consistent in this case with our book, The Party Decides, is that that Cain may have some appeal with some elements of the party, but he is not broadly appealing among political leaders, and so the party leaders will find a way to nominate someone else.

Art Buchwald must be spinning in his grave

From the Washington Post:

(link from here)

As Jay Livingston points out, the Post’s lolcat is not only ridiculous on its own, it also doesn’t fit with the first paragraph of the news story.

The Campaign Fallacy

In his most recent New York Times column, David Brooks falls into a common trap of political reporting, mixing concerns of policy and campaigning. Brooks writes:

Democrats can win elections in this climate if they defuse the Big Government/Small Government ideological debate. With his Third Way approach, Bill Clinton established that he was not a Big Government liberal. Once he crossed that threshold, he could get voters to think about his individual policies, which were actually quite popular.

Ethical Challenges of Embedded Experimentation

Continuing our series of articles from the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization Section, Newsletter, today we present the following article on the “Ethical Challenges of Embedded Experimentation” by Macartan Humphreys of Columbia University. Since posting the first article from the newsletter on Monday, I have subsequently learned that the entire newsletter is free and publicly available on the website of National Endowment for Democracy.

David Karol and Hans Noel

We’re very pleased to welcome David Karol and Hans Noel as occasional contributors.  They have appeared on this blog on and off (e.g., here or here), and I have cited their book on the presidential nominations process, The Party Decides, several times.  They will be blogging about the election and anything else that catches their fancy.  We’re glad to have them

All that you ever wanted to know about the political economy of small businesses in Italy, but were afraid to ask (and much, much more)

Matt Yglesias and Tyler Cowen argue that Italy’s economic problems have a lot to do with the country’s reliance on small businesses.

Matt:

Jared Bernstein cautions against the over-lionization of small businesses in the New York Times. I agree. The best evidence for skepticism continues, I think, to me the fact that if small firms were so fantastic Italy and Greece would be the economic superstars of the western world … you can have an economy like Italy’s with lots of barriers to competition so that poorly managed firms stay in business with low productivity

Tunisia Post-Election Report II: Free Fair and Meaningful

Continuing our series of election reports, we present a second post-election report on Sunday’s historic Tunisian elections from Professor Jason Brownlee of the University of Texas, Austin, the author of Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization.

Switzerland Post-Election Report: 2011 Parliamentary Elections

In our continuing series of election reports, we are pleased to welcome the following post-election report on Sunday’s Swiss Parliamentary election from Sean Müller and Paolo Dardanelli, both of the University of Kent.

[NOTE: An incorrect, slightly different version of this post was originally posted. This version now reflects the correct version. Apologies – JT.]

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Why Didn’t Qaddafi go into exile?

Below are some thoughts on Qaddafi’s death and his decision not to seek exile from Barbara Walter, a professor of international relations at the University of California at San Diego. Professor Walter is a renowned expert on internal wars and terrorism and has published several outstanding books and articles on these topics as well as issues of bargaining, cooperation, and reputation more generally. We are glad to share her views here.

One of the many puzzles surrounding Muammar Qaddafi was his refusal to go into exile. Once NATO intervened on behalf of the rebels and Tripoli fell, Qaddafi must have known that he would eventually lose the war and that this would mean death. Instead of leaving the country, he decided to stay.

The rule is . . . there are no rules

Seema Mehta presents an amazing list of errors in recent speeches of congressmember and presidential candidate Michele Bachmann.

What’s scary here is not so much that there’s a U.S. congresswoman running around who can’t seem to distinguish between truth and fiction—-after all, my very own congressman is reportedly a criminal, and I can only assume that he’s been too busy with his criminal enterprises to have paid much attention to politics for the past few decades—-but rather the rules of how her campaign is covered.

Invisibility and policy design

One of the themes of my new book, The Submerged State: How Invisible Government Policies Undermine American Democracy, is that Americans are largely unaware of many public policies, even if they benefit from them themselves.

Welcome to Suzanne Mettler

Suzanne Mettler, Cornell political scientist, author of The Submerged State: How Invisible Government Policies Undermine American Democracy, and creator of the table that launched 1000 blogposts will be guestblogging with us for a while. We are very happy to have her.

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