Vox Pop

The Prospect's politics blog

How the Crisis Ends

In 2010, John Boehner tells President Obama, "I'm open! Pass it over here!" The President declines. (White House photo by Pete Souza)
I know it may be a little hard to envision right now, but the crisis we're in at the moment is going to come to an end. The question is, how? It might be worthwhile to think through the major possibilities. I've added odds for each one, based on my best (and necessarily subjective) judgment. 1. President Obama caves. He agrees to delay the Affordable Care Act for a year to restart the government and agrees to budget cuts and entitlement cuts beyond the sequester-level budget Democrats have already agreed to in order to raise the debt ceiling. Tea Partiers triumph. Many congressional Republicans still think this is a possibility. They see Barack Obama as a weakling who will always crumble in the end. They also suffer from a common political delusion, that the American public agrees with you on both the substance of policy and the tactics you've chosen. So even with polls showing approval of the shutdown, their party, and the institution in which they serve plunging to the depths of...

De-Kochifying the Dance

AP Images/Javier Galeano
The three buildings arrayed around the central fountain at New York’s Lincoln Center are, north to south, Avery Fisher Hall, the Metropolitan Opera House, and the David H. Koch Theater. Avery Fisher was a radio and sound reproduction technologist who amassed a fortune from his hi-fi ventures in the mid-20 th century, and donated a vast sum of money to the New York Philharmonic, which today performs in his eponymous auditorium. The Metropolitan Opera is the Metropolitan Opera. And David Koch is the same David Koch who is financing the destruction of the United States as we know it. Owned by the City of New York, the Koch Theater is home to the New York City Ballet; it hosts visiting dance companies as well. It was known as the New York State Theater—its construction was funded by the state’s government—from its opening in 1964 until 2008, when David Koch made a ten-year, $100 million pledge to fund the theater’s renovation and its operating and maintenance expenses. The question before...

McCutcheon, the Next Victory for the 1 Percent

AP Photo/Susan Walsh
(AP Photo/J. David Ake) S tarting with Buckley v. Valeo in 1976 and continuing up to the Citizens United decision in 2010, the Supreme Court has repeatedly found that attempts by Congress to restrict campaign finance violate the Constitution. In 2011, a bare majority of the Court found that a public-finance law that didn't suppress speech violated the First Amendment . Based on today's oral argument in McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission, it is overwhelmingly likely that the Supreme Court will further restrict the ability of Congress to pass campaign-finance restrictions. McCutcheon is a potentially new frontier in constitutional law because it involves campaign donations. In Buckley , the Court held that restrictions on campaign spending faced a high level of First Amendment scrutiny, but legislatures had more leeway to regulate campaign donations . Congress has limited both the size of individual donations (with $2,600 being the current maximum) and the aggregate amount of...

Enter Yellen

AP Images/Eugene Hoshiko
With President Obama’s belated decision to name Janet Yellen to chair the Fed, several questions arise. First, is Yellen likely to be confirmed? Almost certainly. The Republicans have lost a lot of public support by shutting down the government and playing chicken with the debt ceiling. They are not likely to trifle with the one functioning branch of government. Despite the Republicans’ intermittent uses of the filibuster, I’d be surprised if they went to the barricades to block Yellen. Second, there is the question of whether Yellen will have the same working majority on the Fed’s board of governors and open market committee that Ben Bernanke has enjoyed. There are now three vacancies on the Fed. One will be filled by Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs, Lael Brainard, a woman who is close to both Larry Summers but also to Dan Tarullo, the progressive Fed governor responsible for banking regulation at the Fed. However, the shift of Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin to be...

Royal Rumble: Academics vs. Film Critics

AP/Belknap Press
It's not every Sunday morning I find myself engaged in a Twitter quarrel with Richard J. Evans, today's foremost (though Ian Kershaw may disagree) academic historian of the Third Reich. But Sir Richard—yes, he's been knighted—is also the foremost academic defender of Ben Urwand's controversial new book The Collaboration: Hollywood's Pact With Hitler , and I had a bone to pick with him. I can't say I'm not grateful he answered, although my dream of blowing off Cambridge's Regius Professor of Modern History by tweeting, "Gotta go. Saints game's on!" didn't materialize. The nature of my bone—and I suspect I've waited years to commit that phrase to the public's tender mercies, Prospect readers—was fairly simple. I haven't read The Collaboration yet, a disqualifier from passing judgment on it I strongly urge you to keep in mind. Because I'm a movie reviewer and my colleagues are involved, I'd been a fascinated onlooker to the kerfuffle over Urwand's alleged "reckless" misinterpretations...

The Evangelist

Gregg Segal T wo years ago on a summer morning, Jim Gilliam stood offstage at New York University’s Skirball Center. It was the second day of the Personal Democracy Forum, an annual gathering of civic-minded coders, hackers, and online organizers. Many in the crowd knew Gilliam as much for his appearance—he’s six-foot-nine, bald, ivory-pale, and impossibly thin—as for his brilliance as a programmer and his passion for progressive causes. Gilliam, who was 33 years old, had never spoken before such a large audience, and as he strode across the stage and looked out on all the people, he was terrified. “Growing up,” he began, “I had two loves: Jesus and the Internet.” He had titled his speech “The Internet Is My Religion,” and he was surprised the conference’s organizers had agreed to let him give a talk steeped in God and faith. Even though he’d rehearsed for weeks, he expected to bomb. Still, he had to do this. His entire life, he believed, had led him to this point. “I was born again...

Will Republican Moderates Really Allow the Government to Reopen?

The palace of intrigue. (Flickr/K.P.Tripathi)
The latest rhetorical tool the President and his allies are using on John Boehner is telling him to put his money where his mouth is, specifically on the "clean" continuing resolution passed by the Senate. Boehner claims that if he allowed a clean CR to be voted on in the House, it would fail, so he must continue to demand a pound of flesh from the administration as the price of reopening the government. Barack Obama's response is, if that's true, then why not let it come up for a vote and see what happens? In recent days, a couple of news organizations have made counts of the Republican "moderates" (not all of whom are actually moderate) who have made public comments indicating they would support a clean CR. As of now, The Washington Post 's tally has 21 Republicans in favor; combine them with the 200 Democrats, all of whom are likely to vote for the clean CR, and you've got a majority. But would these moderates follow through if it came to a vote? As David Karol says in an excellent...

Daily Meme: 19 Reasons Why the Shutdown/Debt Ceiling Is Making Us Crazy and Some GIFs Because, Why Not?

1. " The 13 reasons Washington is failing " 2. " Why the Government Shutdown Isn't Anywhere Near Over—in 1 Graph " 3. "Frequently and Infrequently Asked Questions About the Forthcoming Federal Government Shutdown" 4. "Everything You Need to Know About the Looming Government Shutdown" 5. "Absolutely everything you need to know about how the government shutdown will work" 6. "US shutdown: a guide for non-Americans" 7. "'SNL AND MILEY CYRUS EXPLAIN THE SHUTDOWN WITH SEXY MICHELLE BACHMANN & BABY JOHN BOEHNER 8. "Ferris Bueller Explains The Government Shutdown" 9. "The Government Shutdown Perfectly Described In GIFs For Dummies" 10. "The Government Shutdown Summed Up In One GIF" 11. "Government Shutdown Memes: 20 Awesomest Memes for the End of America" 12. " The Government Shutdown, Told in Lego " 13. "Ryan Gosling and Kate Upton Explain the Shutdown" 14. "This Chart Destroys The Debt Ceiling Truthers" 15. " The Chart That Should Accompany All Discussions of the Debt Ceiling" 16. What...

The Power of No

Members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a group of very nice people who won't be shutting anything down. (Flickr/Talk Radio News Service)
It's been noted many times that the conservative Republicans driving the shutdown/debt default crisis are insulated from political repercussions for their actions by the fact that they come from extremely conservative districts where they face little to no risk of getting beaten by a Democrat in a general election. The implicit argument is that safe seats equate to not just ideological extremism, but the kind of procedural extremism we're seeing now. Yet as Eric Boehlert observes , there are lots of Democrats who are just as safe as these Republicans—in fact, there are more Democrats with safe seats, and many of those seats are even safer than Republican safe seats. So why don't the extremely conservative Democrats engage in the same kind of gamesmanship the Tea Party Republicans do, threatening to burn the whole place down unless they get their way? Before we answer the "why" question, here's what we're talking about. Let's look at the Cook Partisan Voter Index , which sorts...

The She-covery that Wasn't

Press Association via AP Images
AP Photo W hen the government shutdown ends and September’s jobs report is released (it was supposed to appear last Friday), careful readers will notice that women are holding a number of jobs either at or just above their all-time high (which came in early 2008), while men are still millions short of their own pre-crash milestone. Hailing a successful she-covery, however, obscures the fact that women still face an elevated unemployment rate and that the barriers that kept that them from earning as much as men before the recession are still in place. Women are millions of jobs short of where they would be if the economy was at its full potential. Many of the new jobs they have are low-paying. The main causes of the pay gap, like gender segregation in the labor market, have not gone away. That women are gaining jobs is a good thing, but policymakers should not be convinced their work is over. Quantity Even though women hold about as many jobs now as they did before the crash,...

The Conflicted Gay Pioneer

AP Images/Ron Frehm
W hen it comes to American political thought, who in our nation’s history did the thinking and writing that we ought to care about? The Puritans, for starters. They created a theocracy in a strange land and the idea of American exceptionalism. The Founders invented a new democratic form of government, wrote its charters—the Declaration, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights—and explained the logics of its nascent institutions. The argument about whether and how to remain true to these texts has unfolded ever since, with contributions from Abraham Lincoln to Franklin Roosevelt to Ronald Reagan to today. Because the Founders built a new government on a narrow social base of slave owners and propertied white men, significant political thought must also include the works of abolitionists and champions of blacks’, women’s, immigrants’ rights—everyone who persuaded Americans to update and expand what was meant by “We the People.” In the wake of our country’s enormous gains in gay rights, it’...

A New York State of Self-Esteem

NYC Girls Project
O ver the years, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has gotten plenty of flak for his public-health campaigns. Efforts to curb soda drinking, reduce teen pregnancy, and shrink daily caloric intake all fed into an image of Bloomberg as a nagging pest who used the weight of the city government to scare New Yorkers into submission. But in the last few months of his tenure, the Bloomberg administration is offering a more uplifting message. The latest campaign from the mayor’s office isn’t about frightening city residents into kicking a bad habit; targeted at preteen girls, it’s designed to thwart body-image problems before they begin. NYC Girls Project The New York City Girls Project , an initiative piloted by Bloomberg’s deputy press secretary, Samantha Levine, is the first major city public-health campaign to tackle girls’ self-esteem. The program, which has a budget of $330,000, works to amp up girls’ body image in a number of ways. Posters depicting a wide array of 7- to 12-year-...

The Debt-Ceiling Crisis to End All Debt-Ceiling Crises

Don't worry--unlike what's going on in Washington now, this is only a drill. (Flickr/USAG-Humphreys)
The most important fact about the shutdown crisis, which is soon to become the shutdown/debt-ceiling crisis, is that Democrats are not making any demands. The only thing they want is for the government to reopen and for the United States not to default. Since these are things Republicans also claim they want, they can't be considered demands. Republicans, on the other hand, have lots of demands, even if they keep changing. That's why the current Republican talking point—"Why won't the Democrats negotiate?"—is fundamentally misleading. One way for this whole thing to end is for Republicans to give up their demands and admit they've lost. Unsurprisingly, they're reluctant to do this. But what if Democrats started making a demand of their own? Today, White House press secretary Jay Carney said something encouraging: that Barack Obama is never again going to negotiate over the debt ceiling. "Whether it's today, or a number of weeks from now, or a number of months from now, or a number of...

Daily Meme: Supreme Court Goes Back to School

The new Supreme Court session heats up this week in a city languishing in political purgatory. And, listen up tourists, the show is open for visitors , unlike most attractions and destinations in D.C. (and, while you're there you can even pick up some sweet John Marshall bling). Although I'm sure certain justices wish they could sit at home watching their Seinfeld CDs just like all those furloughed federal employees. Tomorrow's oral arguments are for the first blockbuster case on the docket , McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission , the sequel to the Citizens United decision from 2010. Law professor Richard Hasen thinks that "if the government loses big, it could mark the beginning of the end of any limits on campaign contributions given directly to candidates in federal, state, and local elections." Norm Ornstein writes that if the aggregate political spending limits are struck down in the case, "brace yourselves for a political system that will make the Gilded Age look like the a...

No, Really, Blame John Roberts on Medicaid

The Prospect 's Paul Waldman has a terrific piece noting the terrible effects of states refusing the Medicaid expansion contained in the Affordable Care Act. Slate 's Matt Yglesias notes who should get the blame for this: John Roberts and the other conservative Republican justices who—in an unprecedented decision—ruled that making existing Medicaid money from the federal government contingent on accepting the expansion was unconstitutional. Kevin Drum of Mother Jones , however, argues that we shouldn't blame John Roberts because he was right : I think this is unfair. In fact, there were only two justices who upheld the Medicaid expansion (Ginsburg and Sotomayor). All the rest, including the liberals Breyer and Kagan, struck it down. So it wasn't even a close call. The vote against the Medicaid provision was 7-2. And as much as I dislike the result, I can't find a lot of fault with this. The basic holding was simple: given our federalist structure, states can't be forced to help fund...

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