Vox Pop

The Prospect's politics blog

Myth Buster: Latinos Are Not "Natural Conservatives"

Flickr/Obama for America
Flickr/The Barack Obama Campaign L atinos, the conventional wisdom on the right goes, are ripe for conservatives' electoral picking. A majority are Catholic, family-oriented, and hardworking. If only Republicans could change their thinking on immigration—turning away from the Mitt Romney "self-deportation" approach—this constituency would naturally flock to the party of Reagan. But a recent poll from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) confirms what data geeks have been saying for years: The Latinos-are-conservatives-at-heart idea is little more than Republican myth-making. Not only does this constituency strongly identify with Democrats on the key social issues that matter to movement conservatives—abortion and same-sex marriage—they are more liberal than most Americans. And hardworking or not, Latinos are concerned with rising inequality and favor public investment in the economy. All this is bad news for those who think the GOP is a rebrand away from cashing in on a...

John Boehner Has Speaker Tenure for Life—If He Wants It

AP Photo/Cliff Owen
AP Photo/Molly Riley D on’t worry about John Boehner. Yes, there seem to be near-constant rumors and suspicions of a revolt against him, and Republican members of the House have been conspiring with Texas senator Ted Cruz. But it’s unlikely to actually cost him his job. He’s probably going to survive and remain as speaker of the House just as long as he wants to. At least, as long as divided government and the Republican House majority last. Over at The New Republic , Noam Scheiber argues that Boehner’s job will “ almost certainly ” be lost if he allows the debt limit to be raised with mostly Democratic votes. That’s probably wrong. To see why, however, we need to step back. See, the reasons that Boehner has seemingly been five minutes from getting ousted throughout his speakership have nothing to do with Boehner; they’re structural. Which means that any possible speaker—Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Michele Bachmann, or Ronald Reagan risen from the dead—would have pretty much...

Have Too Many Cooks Spoiled Obamacare?

AP Images/J. Scott Applewhite
It's safe to say that if Americans don't understand the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by now—and they don't —they never will. The slightly better news is that consumers don't have to understand it in order to benefit from it, but even so, almost all the problems the ACA has encountered or will encounter are a result of the law's enormous complexity. That complexity grew out of early decisions made by Barack Obama, but along the way Congress added their own layers of complexity in order to pass it, then conservatives on the Supreme Court added some more. There were reasons, most of them perfectly good, for each of these decisions; everyone thought they were responding to reality or doing what was in the best interests of the country. But as full implementation of the law is upon us, we should acknowledge how much damage has been done by all this complexity. In a recent article in National Affairs , Johns Hopkins political scientist Steven Teles bemoans the rise of "Kludgeocracy." The term...

Republican Palace Intrigue Gets Interesting

A man alone, beset by enemies on all sides. (Flickr/Talk Radio News Service)
Congress is full of factions in both parties. Many of them are ad hoc and temporary—say, two groups that coalesce around differing versions of a bill to do pretty much the same thing. They try to persuade their colleagues, one group wins or loses, and though there may be some hurt feelings, they know they'll be working together again eventually. And of course, there are ideological allies who work with each other more frequently and may come to see some in their own party as opponents or even enemies. But what you don't see too much of is real cloak-and-dagger, House of Cards -style plotting, with clandestine meetings, vicious backstabbing, and high-risk conspiracies. It happens now and again, like the bungled coup that attempted to unseat Newt Gingrich in 1997. But it's the exception, not the rule. So fans of Republican infighting, rejoice. Looks like there's something similar going on right now. Robert Costa of the National Review reports that Senator Ted Cruz is leading a bunch of...

Daily Meme: The First Draft of the GOP's Debt-Ceiling Wish List

The House Republicans released a ultimatum of all the things they'd need before even thinking about raising the debt-ceiling. It was a beautiful exercise in wishful thinking. As Jonathan Chait notes , "It is, uh, rather extensive, and really needs to be read in full to appreciate its megalomaniacal ambition," but the Cliff Notes version: delay Obamacare implementation for a year, approve Keystone XL, obliterate Dodd-Frank, cut spending here and there and everywhere, etc. Please. The White House's response was basically, "LOL." And this was the list of demands they painstakingly whittled down to the essential and acheivable! We can only imagine what the first draft of their wish list demanded... Like, more history on the History Channel , perhaps. Replace the House Budget Committee office with a P90X workout room. Update Earth Day to include celebratory "environmental acupuncture" events. Give Thomas Friedman's seat at The New York Times opinion section roundtable to Chuck Norris. Make...

Memo to Republicans: You Lost. Now Deal with It.

Artist's rendering of the House Republican Caucus. (Flickr/Ian Turk)
Imagine you're a third-grade teacher, and the school announces that all the classrooms are going to be repainted, and the kids will get to choose the colors. You let your students each make a case for the color they'd like for their classroom, and it comes down to a choice between blue and green. The two sides give cute little speeches to the class about their favorite colors, and then you take a vote. There are 20 kids in the class; 12 choose blue and 8 choose green. Blue it is. But then the kids who wanted green insist that the color has to be green. They go to the principal's office and make their case that blue sucks and green rules. The principal tells them that the class chose blue, so the walls are going to be blue. Then the pro-green kids return and say that since there was a new kid who joined the class since the vote, we have to have the vote again. Another vote is held; it's still blue. Then the pro-green kids announce that because anyone can see that blue is sucky, they're...

I Was Wrong about Elena Kagan

AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File
AP Photo/Susan Walsh O ne of the central arguments made by In the Balance , Mark Tushnet's terrific new book about the current Supreme Court bench ( reviewed here by Garrett Epps ), concerns the counterweight to the conservative faction led by Chief Justice John Roberts. If Democratic nominees are able to wrest control of the Supreme Court back from the Republican nominees who have controlled the median vote on the Court for more than four decades, Tushnet argues, it is Elena Kagan who is likely to emerge as the intellectual leader of the Democratic nominees. And despite what many liberals feared, there is every reason to think that this would be an outcome supporters of progressive constitutional values would be very happy with. When I say "many liberals," I include myself . My skepticism about the nomination, I should clarify, was not because I thought Kagan was a bad or unqualified nominee, or because I thought she was a closet reactionary. In the context in which Democrats had a...

Breaking Bad's Endgame

AP Images/Doug Hyun
AP Images/Doug Hyun T he Breaking Bad Backlash begins 60 hours from now and, if you listen very hard, you can hear the stirrings already, through the fever pitch of the phenomenon that the show has become and the nearly desperate anticipation surrounding this Sunday’s series finale. Mere ratings can’t capture an intensity that’s beyond quantifying by even (or especially) a stickler for precision like high-school-chemistry-teacher-turned-meth-maestro Walter White; no conclusion since The Sopranos ’ infamous cut to black has attracted this much zealous attention. If you haven’t seen a single episode of the show, odds are you know nearly as much about it as you do about shows of which you’ve witnessed every single inconsequential second, because for the last month the unhinged around you won’t shut the hell up about it. It would be kind of cool, and maybe even healthy, to start the backlash here but I can’t, because I’m convinced that White, as played by Bryan Cranston, is the greatest...

Angela Merkel, Black Widow, Seeks Partner

AP Images/Michael Sohn
The American press has widely reported on German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s nickname: “Mutti,” which translates to “Mommy.” Less noted is her second nickname, which is also familial but decidedly less affectionate: “The Black Widow.” She has earned this second sobriquet because she kills her partners with whom she governmentally cohabits. In Germany’s 2005 election, Merkel’s Christian Democrats edged out the then-governing Social Democrats by a single percentage point, 35 percent to 34 percent. The Social Democrats then entered into a coalition government headed by the Christian Democrats, with Merkel as chancellor. In the next election, in 2009, Merkel claimed credit for the government’s successes, while the Social Democrats had trouble defining themselves as a clear opposition party. As a consequence, not only did Merkel’s party win re-election, but the Social Democrats’ vote fell to an all-time low of 23 percent. Since 2009, the Christian Democrats have governed in partnership with...

Cory Booker and the Vegan Strip Club: A One-Act DM Play

To call Newark mayor and soon-to-be senator Cory Booker extroverted would be something of an understatement. If he sees you on the street, he'll shake your hand. If he meets you in the hall, he'll give you a hug. If you're snowed in, he'll shovel your walk. If your building is burning down, he'll come in and rescue you. And if you follow him on Twitter, there's a fair chance he'll follow you back, which means that the two of you can start sending direct messages (DMs) to each other. He follows over 75,000 people, which is a lot to keep up with. So it wasn't too surprising when we learned that Booker had been exchanging messages with a stripper who works at a club in Portland that bills itself as the world's first vegan strip club. Booker might have been able to tell Lynsie Lee's occupation from her profile picture , but either he didn't look or it didn't bother him. Since DMs are private, we don't know for certain what transpired between them, besides what Buzzfeed already published...

Daily Meme: Ted Cruz's Rotten Tomatoes Score

Fresh (95%): Rush Limbaugh — "Ted Cruz is fighting for freedom in the greatest tradition of American freedom fighters." Fresh: (90%) Sarah Palin — "Maybe if Ted had worn pretty pink running shoes he'd have gotten more respect from the same leftwing media that gushed over the Texan state senator who filibustered in the Texas legislature." Fresh (85%): David French — "While the leftist outlets (and, sadly, some Republicans) spew forth their vitriol, I can’t help but think that moments like this and Senator Rand Paul’s “Stand with Rand” filibuster represent key turning points for the conservative movement." Fresh (82%): John Podhoretz — "All in all, the Cruz performance was great political theater, and Cruz was astoundingly impressive both in demeanor and in the cogency and saliency of his arguments against ObamaCare." Fresh (59%) David Frum — "In the Senate, Cruz may look right now the very opposite of shrewd. But the view Cruz cares about is the view from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South...

Boom Times for the NRA

Flickr/Sea Grape
There's a lot happening at the moment—government shutdown, war in Syria, Iranian president sort of maybe not denying the Holocaust—so there was very little attention given to the fact that yesterday, the United States government signed the United Nations Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), commonly known as the small-arms treaty. It's meant to prevent the arming of human-rights abusers—potential perpetrators of genocide, and the like—by obligating states not to sell conventional weapons, from small arms up to tanks and helicopters, to foreign governments or entities that are going to use them to commit war crimes and massacre civilians. When it was voted on by the UN, the only countries that voted against it were Syria, Iran, and North Korea. And today, the National Rifle Association is celebrating. That might strike you as odd, but the ATT is political gold for them. It's the international equivalent of a failed gun control effort in Congress, which is far, far better than no gun control effort...

Virginia Is for Lovers of Politics as Usual

AP Photo/The Washington Post, Linda Davidson, Pool
AP Photo/The Washington Post, Linda Davidson, Pool K en Cuccinelli, the Republican candidate for governor of Virginia, was immediately sucking for air as last night's debate in Northern Virginia began. It took his opponent, Democrat Terry McAuliffe—former Democratic National Committee chair and Clinton World stalwart—just a few minutes and a few lines about how he'll bring business to the state before he was able to smoothly segue into this attack: My opponent has spent most of his career on a social ideological agenda. He has pushed personhood legislation which would outlaw most forms of contraception, would make the pill illegal in Virginia. He bullied the Board of Health that would shut down the woman's health centers. Women are 50 percent of the workforce of the United States of America. Cuccinelli, Virginia's current attorney general, is not the slickest debater and had trouble aggressively beating away such a tone for much of the night. "Well, in this race—of course, we've got...

Angela Merkel's Boring Brilliance

AP Images/Markus Schreiber
AP Images/Markus Schreiber F ew European politicians have survived the financial crisis of 2008 unscathed, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel has proved to be an extraordinary politician. While most of her counterparts across Europe have been swept away amidst the turmoil that has resulted from the euro crisis, Merkel keeps getting stronger. She just won her third general election, and this time, she brought her party within a hair of an absolute majority, something that hasn’t happened to the conservative Christian Democrats since 1957. She’s the first female chancellor in German history, and at the height of her power, which means her tried and true policy of slow, almost glacial change will continue. How boring. And how utterly genius. Not since Bismarck has a German politician managed to parry a dizzying array of domestic and international forces into a manageable agenda as well as she has. Known to friend and foe alike as “Mutti” (“mommy” in German), Merkel is not only the...

Why "Duck Dynasty" Became the Latest Conservative Cultural Touchstone

In a 21-hour speech full of weird moments, few were weirder than when Sen. Ted Cruz abandoned all talk of health care, Nazis, and freedom to talk for a while about Duck Dynasty . "This is a show about a god-fearing family of successful entrepreneurs who love guns, who love to hunt, and who believe in the American Dream," Cruz said. "It's something that according to Congress almost shouldn't exist." He then spent the next four minutes reciting a seemingly random collection of quotes from the show, along the lines of "You put five rednecks on mower, it's gonna be epic." It seemed as if one of his staffers, searching for things Cruz could talk about to pass the time, grabbed the list from a website somewhere. But it wasn't just like reading the phone book, because Duck Dynasty has become for conservatives an island sanctuary in a roiling cultural sea of liberal dangers. In case you're some kind of commie or you live in a monastery, Duck Dynasty is one of the most remarkable American...

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