Baseless 2016 Speculation

I try to avoid speculation about the next election—especially when we’re still eight months away from the current one—but this is too interesting to pass up:

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Hillary Clinton’s protegee and replacement in the Senate, says she’ll ask the Secretary of State to run for President in 2016. […]

“I’m going to be one of the first to ask Hillary to run in 2016,” Gillibrand told BuzzFeed, saying she “certainly hope[s]” Clinton will run for president.

“I think she would be incredibly well-poised to be our next Democratic president,” Gilliband said. “I think she’s extremely well prepared. I think her experience as Secretary of State has not only elevated her stature and experience, but she’s proven she’s someone who can get things done and I think she’d be an outstanding candidate.”

Two quick thoughts. First, it’s interesting that the three most “serious” contenders for the Democratic nomination in 2016 are New Yorkers: Gillibrand, Clinton, and Governor Andrew Cuomo. Given the extent to which the Republican Party has tightend its grip on the South, 2016 might mark the end of the Democratic Party’s love affair with good ’ol boys (Edwards, Clinton, Carter, and others).

The other thing is a little more obvious: regardless of whether Barack Obama wins reelection, I think it’s safe to say that Hillary Clinton is the favorite for the Democratic nomination in 2016. Of course, that was the consensus five years ago, which is to say that a lot can change between now and then.


I don't know about Hillary. As you acknowledge it's all baseless speculation, but I just don't think it's possible to come back from something like 2008. Her aura of inevitability is by definition no longer extant. If Elizabeth Warren wins this year and stays in the headlines, she might have a chance to at least make an impressive showing in 2016.

Things can change but it did seem that Hillary has chosen to eschew electoral politics permanently and has said so publicly on a number of occasions. I don't think that Gilliband, really in my mind the rising star in the party along with Elizabeth Warren, will run for the Presidency in 2016 though I certainly think her presidential timber. I suspect that Andrew Cuomo will run and I'd do everything in my power to keep him from winning the nomination. I suspect that John Hickenlooper might also be candidate come 2016.

I think that Gilibrand was more being courteous than anything else.

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