Is Obama Misreading the Public?

In a new poll, Gallup asks voters to rank their priorities for the next president. Unsurprisingly, the top answer is “jobs,” followed by “reducing corruption in the federal government,” and “reducing the federal budget deficit.” Here are the full results:

Writing at the Washington Examiner, Byron York cites this as evidence that the Obama campaign is out of step with the public:

The point is that Americans prioritize what they want their political leaders to do, and right now, the things that are on top of the voters’ list — creating jobs, reducing corruption, and cutting the deficit — are issues that Mitt Romney and Republicans in Congress have been stressing every day. And the goals the president has been stressing are simply not at the top of voters’ concerns.

This might be true for reducing corruption, which is a key theme for Mitt Romney. But I’m not sure if it’s accurate to say that voters are genuinely concerned with cutting the deficit, and it’s simply wrong to claim that President Obama hasn’t been stressing job creation. The president’s campaign speeches are saturated with talk of job creation, from emphasizing the performance of the last three-and-a-half years to pushing the American Jobs Act. Like the Romney campaign, the Obama team understands that voters want the government to do something about “jobs.” And so it's central to their message.

We have to be careful when we discuss how the public perceives the deficit. It’s not clear, to me at least, that voters understand the “deficit” as the difference between outlays and revenues. To borrow a citation from Jonathan Bernstein, look to the famous town hall-style debate in 1992, when one audience member asked George H.W. Bush how the national debt “personally affected” him. Read literally, this question doesn’t make any sense. But if you hear “national debt” as a synonym for “poor economy,” then the question is perfectly clear.

When voters say they want to cut the deficit, what they likely mean is that they want to improve the economy. And since the Obama campaign is focused on that as well, it’s fair to say that there is no incongruity between President Obama and the desires of the American public. The real question is whether voters believe that Obama can actually deliver on fixing the economy.

Comments

Polls are so weird. For instance, York also says, "The candidate who Americans think has the better plans on each of these issues will have an advantage." But many of these issues might be important, yet less responsive to executive power. For instance, what does reducing corruption even mean? I would say it would be the power of lobbyists to define policy agenda at the expense of national interest - such as hiring libertarians to regulate energy. But that says more about my own ideology than it does any presidential "corruption plan".

So, in a sense, many of these things are kind of signals for ideological bent, as opposed to concrete policy. Maybe I don't think Obama can do much about lobbying, but at least he shares my pro-regulation philosophy. Maybe my corruption is another person's smart, informed policy. This is the kind of stuff that takes the amorphous form of political branding. Obama being more or less left-wing is going to enforce how I view a lot of his response to particular issues that may be of concern to me, and thus I may not have to have my messaging so strictly tailored.

The best part of this article is the president’s campaign speeches are saturated with talk of job creation, from emphasizing the performance of the last three-and-a-half years to pushing the American Jobs Act. documentaries on history

I am really concerned about the voter suppression in Fl, OH and PA. Who do I contact to volunteer to help on election night, make sure that people get out to vote.

Obama and job creation? Pfffffffffffft! He promised jobs and we have high unemployment. If he couldn't keep his promise this term, how do we reward him with four more years while he makes more promises?

You need to be logged in to comment.
(If there's one thing we know about comment trolls, it's that they're lazy)

Connect
, after login or registration your account will be connected.