Deficit

Obamanomics One Year Out.

Obamanomics suffers from a misunderstanding of what the president is trying to achieve and what he’s up against. Into the breach come Republicans, tea partiers, nay-sayers, deficit vultures, and Raging-Dog Democrats, all viewing Obamanomics as more taxes and more spending. That’s nonsense. To see the big picture, keep your eye on three big things.

1. Government spending needed to offset the continued reluctance of consumers and businesses to spend. You don’t have to be an orthodox Keynesian to understand that as long as the private sector is deleveraging, the public sector has to borrow and spend in order to keep the economy moving forward.

Scott Brown Starts Off Strong By Badmouthing Federal Employees.

privatepublic.pngNewly elected Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown was on the teevees over the weekend and got ridiculous, then smacked down by large federal employees union:

What About the Deficit?

budgetdeficit.PNGThe number the Obama team wants you to hear is $1.25 trillion, as in, there is $1.25 trillion worth of deficit reduction in this budget over the next 10 years. It comes largely from letting the upper-income Bush tax cuts expire ($700 billion in savings), the terribly framed non-security discretionary spending freeze ($250 billion in savings), the new bank tax ($90 billion), and various other tax and spending adjustments.

It's 2011 Budget Day!

Today the Obama administration unveils its fiscal year 2011 budget, so I'll be heading to different briefings from OMB staffers, Treasury people, and outside experts. Here's a useful preview from the Post, and one from OMB Director Peter Orszag. Here is the budget itself. Matt Yglesias urges everybody to relax -- but that's no fun, is it.

Some quick hits:

The Tepid Freeze.

So the Department of Education is going to get a 6.2 percent increase in funding in the next budget, even though it is within the budget slice that is to be "frozen." As I explained yesterday, though, the budget "freeze" is simply a rhetorical gambit. The administration intends to go about its usual budget processes while attempting to keep the overall level of domestic discretionary spending at the same level. And it's not even likely to happen, since many members of Congress are skeptical of the White House's ideas.

Beyond Spending and Revenue.

Ezra Klein -- who has been attracting all kinds of attention lately -- reads my column on progressives and the deficit and makes a good point, using a good graph:

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Annotating the Issue: Deficits and Debt.

My column today on the progressive argument over deficits and the national debt doesn't include a good chunk of wonky background research that might be of interest to nerds on the Internet (and really, is there anyone else out there?). Here are some good primary sources for learning more about this issue:

Don't Invoke The Next Generation, Debt Hawks.

Aging Washington "Dean" David S. Broder pens a column today that highlights the dangers of the increasing national debt, referencing a manifesto signed by various Washington eminces gris. Broder says this is a "a stark warning to the president and Congress and a plea for action on behalf of the next generation." This committee of veteran Washington hands, and Broder himself, can complain all they want about the deficit, but they shouldn't be doing so on behalf of the "next generation."

The President's Jobs Initiative Doesn't Measure Up.

Barack Obama is trying once again for balance. On the one hand, he wants enough government spending to offset the timid spending of consumers and businesses. Otherwise, the jobs and wage recession could drag on for years. On the other hand, he doesn't want to set off more alarm bells about the budget deficit. Otherwise, conservative Democrats might join forces with Republicans to block heath care. So what does he do? A little bit more stimulus spending, but stimulus spending that doesn't look like more stimulus because it's not really adding to the deficit. It's coming out of savings from money already authorized to be spent on the bank bailout. Hmmm?

Old Mistakes Die Hard.

With the unemployment rate the highest it's been in 25 years, The Roosevelt Institute asked historians, economists and other public thinkers to reflect on the lessons of the New Deal and explore new, big ideas for how to get America back to work. TAPPED will be cross-posting the 10-part series with the New Deal 2.0 blog. In this installment, James K. Galbraith warns that without a bold change in course, the jobs problem won’t go away.

Just Bob and Frank, Talkin' About Deficits.

Like Tim Fernholz, I'm at the joint conference on "how progressives should think about the deficit," put on by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Center for American Progress. Tim notes that the presence of Franklin Raines, former president of Fannie Mae, and Bob Rubin, formerly of Treasury and Citigroup might "offend those both on the left and the right."

Paul Krugman on the Deficit.

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Today, I'm spending some time at a conference on deficits and debt, put on by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities and the Center for American Progress. The event is an attempt to put a progressive spin on a traditionally centrist issue, but the presence of both Bob Rubin and Frank Raines should be sure to offend those both on the left and the right.

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