The latest poll from Latino Decisions—which surveys five Latino-heavy swing states—suggests that President Obama has gained in a big way from his immigration order. Fifty-four percent of Latino voters are now more enthusiastic about voting for Obama than they were before the order, with a particular increase in Arizona and Nevada, where 62 percent and 60 percent of Latinos say they are more enthusiastic about voting for Obama in November.
Overall, according to Latino Decisions, Obama holds strong support among Latinos in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida:
Thus far, I’ve been convinced that Republicans will rally around Mitt Romney if and when he wins the nomination. The former Massachusetts governor might not be popular with Republican voters, but Barack Obama is the most hated figure in the GOP, and unity is necessary if Republicans want a shot at taking the White House.
At TheWashington Post, Chris Cillizza suggests that, like the Republican Party, President Obama might have a turnout problem in the fall:
A review of the states that have also held Democratic contests this year shows turnout is down sharply from the last time a Democratic president was running largely unopposed for renomination — 1996.
Democratic turnout is down significantly in five of eight states that held similar contests in 1996 and 2012 (and where data are available), and six of eight overall, compared to Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection campaign.
This November, when Barack Obama faces off against his Republican opponent, there will be a third candidate in the race, too. This candidate has already qualified for the ballot in 14 states, including California. The campaign to ensure the candidate’s ballot access in all 50 states has raised $22 million (more than the campaigns of every Republican presidential candidate except Mitt Romney), with which it has employed 3,000 paid signature gatherers and enlisted 3,000 volunteers.
As we watch the Republican primary come down to a contest between (to caricature for a moment) a fight between the flip-flopping, wooden, private equity gazillionaire and the repellent, philandering, pompous influence-peddler, Democrats can't quite figure out who they want to win this race. On one hand, the path to Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney is absolutely clear: he's the candidate of the 1 percent whose lust for power will lead him to say anything to anyone. On the other hand, it's harder to tell what an anti-Newt Gingrich campaign would be like, since there are so many awful things about him to attack. But this makes me wonder: Is this how Republicans felt four years ago?
Today, still 14 months out from the Republican National Convention, some journalists remain wary of thinking the race could be over so soon despite Rick Perry's impressive polling. Amy Gardner at the Washington Postwrote yesterday that "Republicans are still shopping for a presidential nominee" and Ken Rudin argued on his NPR blog that the 1972 primaries provide historical evidence that all candidates should be considered viable nominees, especially this early in the game.
President Obama is in Texas today to give a speech laying out his plans on immigration policy. His visit is primarily interpreted as part of a grander outreach to Latinos before his re-election campaign, but there are indications that he may want to put the Lone Star State into play for 2012. The Dallas Morning Newsquotes one Texas representative whom Obama told, "'You better believe I'm not going to write off Texas.
You'll understand if I don't take this threat very seriously.:
Tom Buffenbarger, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, said his members are “not rushing to vote for a Republican.” But, he said, “it is going to be hard to get them to show up at the polls” for Obama. “Our villain is apathy. They are disgruntled. They are discouraged. They have no enthusiasm for what either party is saying right now.’’
Next year's Democratic presidential convention will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina:
Democrats will gather in Charlotte, N.C., in September to vote on their nomination for the presidential election. The pick signals that President Obama will seek to re-create -- at least in part -- his winning electoral coalition.
A few days ago, erstwhile Clinton poll guru Mark Penn wrote a hilarious op-ed in TheWashington Post, suggesting that "Cleggmania" in Britain showed that America was ready for a third party, hopefully helmed by some kind of Bloomberg-esque billionaire who could hire Mark Penn. You'll notice that Cleggmania wasn't so maniacal when Brits went to the polls yesterday.