Elections in the United States

A Big Endorsement for Gingrich

(AP Photo/Erik Kellar)

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich signs a copy of his book "A Nation Like No Other" as he and his wife Callista Gingrich greet supporters during a book signing event at Books-A-Million in Naples, Fla., Saturday, Nov. 26, 2011.

Reality Check

For all of the punditry (from myself and others) about Mitt Romney’s unpopularity with GOP voters, it’s worth noting the extent to which Republicans are perfectly happy with the former Massachusetts governor. Here’s Gallup with its most recent look at the Republican presidential contest:

Mitt Romney is just as popular as Herman Cain or Newt Gingrich, his problem—in part—is that he has too many competitors, and Republican voters are indulging the extent to which they have a fair amount of choice. When the field begins to winnow in January, odds are very good that Romney will pick up a lot more support from Republican voters.

Are Debates Hurting the Republican Candidates?

So far, the Republican Party has held 11 presidential debates, and between audience cheering for the death penalty, attacks on gay soldiers, or huge candidate gaffes, each debate has shown the GOP candidates in one unflattering light or the other. With 14 more debates to go, The New York Times reports some Republican elites are worried about the effect they could have on public perception.

“This is the core of the Republican brand. You mess with it at your peril,” said Peter Feaver, a national security official under President George W. Bush. He compared the foreign policy flubs to reports about safety problems in Toyota vehicles.

Iowa's Tea Party King

My article in the Prospect's October issue is up at the homepage. It's a long feature, but here's a quick version: After the Iowa Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in 2009, social conservatives at the local and national levels joined forces to attack the court. They used a once-obscure procedure of judicial selection to kick three judges off the bench, though the ruling on marriage still stands as law.

More Hope for Campaign Finance Reformers

I overlooked this in yesterday's post, but the Supreme Court's decision in McComish v. Bennett does more than just strike down the "trigger" mechanism in Arizona's public-financing law, which provides funds to participating candidates when they're outspent by opponents; it keeps Connecticut lawmakers from reintroducing an identical provision to their system of public financing, thus forcing them to devise another system for allocating funds. In a small bit of good news, however, the Court also rejected a challenge to Connecticut's law, which should provide hope for public-financing advocates.

There's Still Hope for Campaign Finance

Campaign finance reformers are understandably disappointed with the Supreme Court’s decision in McComish v. Bennett. Not only does it mark the second time in two years that the Court has ruled for plutocratic interests and against attempts to regulate the flow of money in elections, but the ruling itself is nonsense. Unless “restricting speech” is a euphemism for limiting wealthy interests, it doesn’t restrict speech to provide matching funds for candidates who accept public financing.

Supreme Court Prefers Plutocracy to Free Speech

Speaking of Catch-22s, the Arizona campaign-finance case that the Prospect's Jamelle Bouie wrote about last year has been decided by the Supreme Court, with results that are all too predictable.

When Will Rick Perry Start Running for President?

The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday afternoon that Rick Perry was ready to jump into running for president. The sourcing for the piece was incredibly unconvincing; I'm not sure how one "normally reliable Republican source" who is clearly not part of Perry's camp would know the Texas governor's intentions (and for what it is worth, Perry's official advisers have said a decision is still weeks away). But my major qualm lies with the timeline described for Perry's announcement.

Should Iowa and New Hampshire Give Someone Else a Turn?

carter2009linea-1x16.jpgAs presidential election years approach, it's not unusual to hear reservations about the primary schedule, and in particular, the huge influence of Iowa and New Hampshire. For example, here is _The New York Times_' **David Leonhardt** with [reservations](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/business/economy/01leonhardt.html?_r=1...) about the democratic bona fides of our presidential nomination process:

Elizabeth Warren for Senate?

Some Democrats want consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren to challenge Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown for his Senate seat in 2012:

In seeking to enlist Ms. Warren for a different campaign, Democrats are taking aim at two birds. They can lay the groundwork for a potential compromise over a different candidate to lead the new agency and, they hope, they can increase their chances of reclaiming Mr. Brown’s seat by sending against him a woman who has won considerable acclaim and popularity among liberals for taking on the financial industry. [...]

Newt Gingrich on Climate Change, Circa 2008

Now that Newt Gingrich is officially running for president, I wouldn't be surprised if this video begins to make the rounds on conservative blogs:

Luck, Strategy, and the Mechanics of Winning Presidential Primaries

With Haley Barbour officially out of the presidential race, a pair of libertarian candidates in, and what appears to be a slow winnowing process underway for the Republican nomination, it's worth asking how a long-shot candidate would actually claim the prize. Jonathan Bernstein games out a possible scenario, and it seems to rely less on strategy than it does luck:

GOP Presidential Candidates Remain Unknown to Most Republicans

Are Republican voters passionate about their presidential choices? Apparently not, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll:

While it may not be unusual for voters’ attention to be focused elsewhere at this stage of a campaign, the survey at the very least provides a reality check for a race that has received frenetic coverage at times on cable news and the Internet even though nearly 60 percent of Republicans cannot point to a single candidate about whom they are enthusiastic, according to the Times/CBS poll.

2012 and the Ryan Plan, Cont.

Mark this as one of the few times when I completely agree with Newt Gingrich:

Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker exploring a bid for the Republican presidential nomination, said proposing a major overhaul of entitlement programs was not as politically fraught as it might have been a decade ago. But he said Republicans must be vigilant in defending their actions and mindful that Democrats were poised to attack.
 

“I think it is a dangerous political exercise,” Mr. Gingrich said in an interview Monday. “This is not something that Republicans can afford to handle lightly.”

Whatever Happened to Compassionate Conservatism?

Jonathan Cohn notes the final end of compassionate conservatism:

House Republicans want to cut funding for health programs abroad and for community clinics here at home. And although the projected savings are small, at least relative to the size of the federal budget, the philosophical shift they signal is big. This is the end of compassionate conservatism.

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