Elections in the United States

The Great Man Fallacy in Politics

Time's Joe Klein feels embarrassed for the country whenever he sees the current crop of Republican presidential candidates:

I have never before seen such a bunch of vile, desperate-to-please, shameless, embarrassing losers coagulated under a single party's banner. They are the most compelling argument I've seen against American exceptionalism. Even Tim Pawlenty, a decent governor, can't let a day go by without some bilious nonsense escaping his lizard brain. And, as Greg Sargent makes clear, Mitt Romney has wandered a long way from courage.

Paulsen-Doty '12!

Back when I was in my 20s, a friend of mine told me he had considered, as a birthday present to me, placing my name on the ballot for the presidential primary in New Hampshire. When he found out that the filing fee was $1,000, he thought better of it. I mention this as a reminder that there are a lot more people that run for president than those who actually get discussed by the media. For instance, in 2008, there were 19 Democrats and 21 Republicans on the ballot in New Hampshire. You never heard of most of them, because the news media didn't pay any attention to them. Which in many cases was probably perfectly appropriate.

Citizens United, Part II

Today the Supreme Court will be hearing arguments in the case of McComish v. Bennett, which will decide the fate of Arizona's "clean elections" law and similar ones in a few other states. It seems likely that the Roberts Court, where protecting the interests of the wealthy and powerful so often trumps any other consideration, will strike down the Arizona law.

Neocons and Short Memories

Guess what? Neoconservatism is back, in the form of the 2012 GOP presidential candidates. Or so Politico tells us:

When George W. Bush left office in 2009, liberal Democrats and a fair number of moderate, traditional Republicans proclaimed the good news: the GOP neo-cons were dead, chased from Washington in disgrace.

But as Republican presidential hopefuls begin to develop foreign policy platforms, a clear and surprising pattern has emerged: they’re back, and so far winning the fight for the direction of the party.

Romney Has Already Proved He Can Win the Republican Nomination

The greatest question in the political blogosphere right now is whether Mitt Romney is a dead man walking or the inevitable 2012 Republican candidate. I'm joking, but as I've mentioned before, I think this question is answered pretty easily by looking at how he fared in the 2008 primaries. 2012 will likely be a repeat.

Social Conservatives Are Still Going Strong

For some reason, Politico's Alexander Burns completely buys the fiction that there is a truce on social issues within the Republican Party:

For the first time in three decades, a wide-open Republican presidential primary is unfolding in the shadow of an economic recession. That means even in the heavily socially conservative GOP, voters are more focused on the pocketbook than the Good Book.

A host of leaders on the cultural right told POLITICO they don’t intend to fight it. Instead, they hope to protect their role in the campaign by ensuring that social issues are part of a larger conservative message.

Why Huckabee Won't Run

It would be nice if we could stop paying attention to Mike Huckabee, but the other big news about him is that he is polling well across the South. The former Arkansas governor is popular, and as Paul points out, Huckabee comes across as the likable, down-to-earth sort of Israel-loving, crypto-birther conservative. (Back in 2008, he even made an appearance, pegged to music education, at the staunchly liberal Center for American Progress, because, you know, inviting the occasional Republican over helps convince the IRS to maintain your tax-exempt designation.)

Presidential Conventions Don't Affect the Vote.

charlotte.jpg

Next year's Democratic presidential convention will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina:

Democrats will gather in Charlotte, N.C., in September to vote on their nomination for the presidential election. The pick signals that President Obama will seek to re-create -- at least in part -- his winning electoral coalition.

Mike Huckabee and the Minority Vote.

Mike Huckabee hasn't made up his mind about another run for president, but he is confident about his appeal to "ethnic" voters:

The Future of Campaign Finance?

If you haven't already, you should check out my column today on the Supreme Court's decision to hear arguments in McComish v. Bennett, a case which deals with Arizona's public-financing law. Here are the important parts:

McComish deals with an aspect of Arizona's public-financing law that provides extra funds for candidates who opt into the system when their opponents opt out. Candidates are still bound by spending limits, but if their opponent goes beyond that limit, they are given the funds to match their opponent's spending.

The Solid South.

According to Politico's Jonathan Martin, the Democratic South finally died with this month's midterm elections:

For Democrats in the South, the most ominous part of a disastrous year may not be what happened on Election Day but what has happened in the weeks since.

After suffering a historic rout — in which nearly every white Deep South Democrat in the U.S. House was defeated and Republicans took over or gained seats in legislatures across the region — the party’s ranks in Dixie have thinned even further.

The New York Times' Latest Bogus Trend Story.

If you opened up your New York Times today, you would have seen this headline on the front page: "In a Shift, Fewer Younger Voters See Themselves As Democrats." More terrible news for the Dems! "There's a vibe," one college hunk says while pumping iron at the gym. "Right now it seems like Republicans just care a lot more than Democrats."

Wow -- I guess the nation's young people are abandoning the Democratic Party in droves. So how big has this swing been? Ten points? Twenty points? Let's amble on down to the 21st paragraph of the story:

Lessons From Tuesday's Primaries.

I've got to disagree with Jamelle: Some key primary elections across the country yesterday can teach us a few lessons about the elections in 2010. While unemployment is the driving factor in voter discontent, the candidates a party puts forward matter. If you disagree, tell me where Harry Reid would be today were he not facing Tea Partier Sharron Angle.

Voters Don't Like Republicans Either.

Generally, Republicans have been pretty enthusiastic about the fact that voters aren't too hot on President Obama or the Democratic Party. But they also tend to confuse voter disapproval of Obama for voter approval of Republicans. Of course, the fact is that voters don't particularly like Republicans, either. In a new poll, Public Policy Polling found of people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but don't approve of his job performance, few have anything positive to say about the most prominent Republican contenders for the 2010 presidential nomination.

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