International Democrat Union

The Diminishing Marginal Return of Voting for Barack Obama

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Any explanation of the 2008 election cycle has to include the large intensity gap between Democratic and Republican voters. After eight years of George W. Bush, Democrats were eager to vote against a Republican, and excited to vote for Barack Obama. And while 2008 was Obama’s election to lose, the huge level of Democratic enthusiasm contributed to his unlikely wins in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana.


Republican Dream Map Dashed

Texas congressional hopefuls will begin filing the paper work for their House campaigns today after an eventful holiday weekend. On Saturday, a federal court in San Antonio court approved a new congressional map that overturned the one drawn up by the state's Republican legislature earlier this year, granting Democrats and the state's burgeoning Hispanic population a significantly better chance of picking up seats next year.

Unfortunately, We Don't Have Enough Cynicism

Noted Republican apostate David Frum has a long essay in New York magazine entitled "When Did the GOP Lose Touch With Reality?" that liberals will nod their heads at vigorously, but this one point is worthy of note:

A Match Made in Hell

In the four years since President George W. Bush failed to pass comprehensive immigration reform, anti-immigrant sentiment in the GOP has grown to a fever pitch. At least three Republican-led states have passed draconian laws restricting every aspect of life for undocumented immigrants – Alabama, for example, has made municipal water-usage a deportable offense – and Republican voters have shunned a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry, over his willingness to accomodate the children of undocumented immigrants. Conservatives have grown so hostile to immigrants that, at this point, it has become to alienate some Latino Republicans.

The Risks of Lockstep Voting

Ron Brownstein of the National Journal points out something interesting: Republican members of Congress who got elected in Democratic districts aren't voting like people whose jobs are tenuous; they've voting like, well, like any other Republican, at least on environmental issues:

Pennsylvania GOP Abuses Constitution and Disenfranchises Black Voters for Fun and Profit!

As far as the Constitution is concerned, each state is allowed to determine how it allocates its Electoral College votes. Most states hew to a winner-take-all system, but a few – Maine and Nebraska – allocate theirs by congressional district: your electoral vote total depends on the number of congressional districts you win, not your total vote share.

The Tea Party In Decline

I've long predicted, perhaps more out of hope than foresight, that once the 2012 Republican presidential nominating contest got underway, the Tea Party would fade away. I expected that all those newly energized activists would channel their energy into their preferred primary candidate, and after that, into helping the nominee defeat Barack Obama. If the Republican wins, the Tea Party will cease to exist utterly, since it was always primarily an anti-Obama enterprise more than anything else. Just as Republicans didn't care about deficits when George W. Bush was president, they'll stop caring about them once the next Republican takes office.

The Ron Paul-Era in American Politics

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To Politico’s Roger Simon, Rep. Ron Paul was “shafted” by the national press, despite his strong second place finish in the Ames Straw Poll. “Any fair assessment of Ames . . . would have said the winds of the Republican Party are blowing toward both Bachmann and Paul,” writes Simon.

Opinions of Congress Crater

The Washington Post has a new poll out today that shows the widespread disgust with Washington you'd expect to see. The number of people who have confidence in Washington's ability to handle the economy has plunged, and nobody comes out looking good. To Republicans, this might seem like mission accomplished. As the anti-government opposition party, they can use obstructionism and blackmail to destroy government's ability to function, then turn to the voters and say, "See? We told you government doesn't work! Now vote for us!"

The Public Really Doesn't Like the Republican Party

Given liberal despair over President Obama’s political fortunes, you might think that we live in a world where the Republican Party is popular with voters. But you’d be wrong. Despite their recent legislative success, Republicans have never been more unpopular than they are now. According to the latest CNN survey of American voters, 59 percent have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, a record high in CNN’s polling. This is an eleven point jump from March, when CNN released its first poll of the new Republican House majority. Right now, the GOP is more unpopular than it was during Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial.

The Debt-Ceiling Crises of the Future

As I've been saying for some time, when it comes to violating previously unquestioned norms of behavior, the Republicans are the party of "Yes we can!" and the Democrats are the party of "Maybe we shouldn't." As Think Progress tells us, Mitch McConnell is quite clear that since hostage-taking worked so well for Republicans this time around, they're quite happy to do it again, and again, and again:

More Democratic Capitulation to Come?

Our ongoing debt battle will soon move to its next phase, where the 12-member "super Congress" will attempt to negotiate $1.8 trillion in further budget cuts; if they can't come to an agreement, or if they do come to an agreement and their plan isn't adopted by the full non-super Congress, a package of cuts, taken equally from defense and non-defense discretionary spending (with a few programs held harmless) goes into effect. Jonathan Chait sees a silver lining in all this:

No Deal Is the Best Deal for GOP Presidential Candidates

If you want a sense of how far right the Republican base is right now, even with the GOP’s huge victory on the debt ceiling, look no further than the Republican presidential candidates and their statements on the agreement reached last night.

For erstwhile moderate Mitt Romney, the deal is a non-starter:

Fallout

Allen West says gay service members will destroy the military.

Chauncey DeVega has more on Captain America.

According to anti-marriage-equality activists, these happy people are a threat to America.

Bad day to blame the Muslim Brotherhood for everything.

Why Jewish voters recoil from Republicans. 

White Flight

If you want to see political vindication of the Republican decision to pursue a strategy of racial grievance, portraying Barack Obama as an un-American outsider with a "deep-seated hatred of white people," you need only look at Pew's latest analysis in the shift in partisan identification:

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