My newest post at 538 looks at how beating expectations in Iowa drives media attention to candidates, which in turn helps them in New Hampshire. Here’s the graph:
Rick Perry has already been declared the front-runner to gain the GOP nomination less than a month after launching his campaign. He's posted a significant lead in recent polls over previous front-runner Mitt Romney. The only problem is that national polls mean nothing at this point in the election cycle -- it's all about how the candidates will perform in the early primary states. The current crowded field will get narrowed down to a handful of candidates by the time most of the states hold their primaries.
Typically, whenever you see a project funded by the stimulus, there is a sign near by pointing out that it was funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. It lets the public know what they're getting for their money. It turns out the signs are pretty expensive -- weird, right? can't they just get cheaper signs? -- and that some states are forgoing that expenditure to put their stimulus money toward something more tangible.
