Politics of the United States

Hillary Clinton's "Connection" to White Voters: What Could It Possibly Be?

One of these things is not like the other. (White House photo by Pete Souza)
In an interview published yesterday at Talking Points Memo, Mitch Stewart, an adviser to the nascent Hillary Clinton quasi-campaign, argued that Clinton could expand the map of states that Barack Obama won, putting more places in play. The reason, he said, that "Secretary Clinton has more appeal than any other Democrat looking at running is that with white working-class voters, she does have a connection." The idea of Clinton's "connection" to the white working class is something you hear now and again, and I think it's worth examining in some detail. Because it raises some uncomfortable questions that I doubt the Clinton campaign wants to confront. Something tells me she isn't going to be putting "Hillary Clinton: A Democrat, But White!" on her bumper stickers. But that's the essence of what we're talking about about here. It seems like a long time ago now, but during the 2008 primaries things got extremely racially charged for a while, at a time when the Clinton campaign was...

The Keystone XL Issue May Be Resolved With—Shocker—Democratic Capitulation

"Do you want me to drink a glass of crude oil? 'Cause I will. I mean it." (Flickr/Mary Landrieu)
The current Democratic effort to help Mary Landrieu win her runoff election by scheduling a quick vote on the Keystone XL pipeline has to be one of the most politically idiotic moves in recent history. As I argued yesterday , not only is it guaranteed to fail in its goal of helping Landrieu, it gives Republicans a huge policy victory while getting nothing in return. Runoff elections have extremely low turnout, and the only way Landrieu stands a chance is if she can convince lots of Louisiana Democrats to go to the polls to save her. This kind of me-too policymaking—I'm just as pro-oil as Republicans are!—is about the last thing that'll pump up Democratic enthusiasm. But they're going ahead with it anyway, and word is now that a vote is likely next week. All may not be well, however, between Landrieu and her colleagues. The close of this article in today's Post is rich with intrigue: Before her remarks, Landrieu was spotted riding the escalator alone up from the Senate trains that...

Congressman From Goldman Sachs Vying to Lead Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)
(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak) U.S. Representative Jim Himes, Democrat of Connecticut, shown here at a hearing of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence regarding NSA surveillance in Washington, Tuesday, June 18, 2013. Himes, who is close to Wall Street financiers, is vying to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. This article originally appeared at The Huffington Post . A fter the Democrats' drubbing in the 2014 midterm elections, there have been fervent debates about whether the party should embrace an economic populism to tap pocketbook frustrations—or move further to the center in the hopes of capturing more independents. One thing the Democrats did throughout Obama's nearly six years was move closer to Wall Street—from the economic team Obama appointed, to the administration's premature embrace of deficit reduction promoted by financial moguls, to a bailout plan that shored up the biggest banks rather than breaking them up. It was this coziness with big...

Can Democrats Get to a True Blue Majority?

These two are totally not speaking to each other. (Flickr/Beverley Goodwin)
Everyone knew that the 2014 Senate election was going to be a tough one for Democrats, in large part because they were defending more seats than Republicans, and many of those seats were in red states. And of course, Democrats lost all the close races, with the exception of the one in New Hampshire. This is going to have an effect on the Democratic caucus in the Senate that we haven't really been talking about since last Tuesday: it's going to make it more liberal. In fact, the red state Democratic senator is a nearly extinct species. Look at the incumbents who lost: Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mark Udall in Colorado, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and possibly Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, who is headed for a run-off. That's three red-state senators, and two from swing states. Democrats also lost vacated seats in Iowa (swing), Montana (basically red), South Dakota (red), and West Virginia (red). If Landrieu loses, there will be no more Southern Democratic senators...

In Blue State Turned Red, Former Candidate Says Low Turnout Reflects Dems' Failures

The fundamental lesson for Maryland Democrats is that a candidate must stand for something, and that something better be what the citizens of the state want. 

(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana) Larry Hogan, left, governor-elect of Maryland, is shown a campaign rally at Patapsco Arena in Baltimore on Sunday, November 2, 2014. He is accompanied by New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association. An earlier version of this essay appeared at The Huffington Post . T he national political red tide swept up the Chesapeake Bay, over the jetties of Spa Creek and up Annapolis's Main Street to the statehouse this week. After eight years of the Democratic administration of Governor Martin O'Malley and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown—characterized by substantial progress on social issues—the Lieutenant Governor Hex landed squarely on Brown. A lieutenant governor has never succeeded his governor here; this year was no different. In a day when fatigue with and anger at the Obama administration was evident across the country, one of the biggest surprises was here in Maryland. In a state where registered Democrats...

One Reason the Democrats Lost So Big in Midterms: Exceptionally Low Voter Turnout

Not since 1942 has turnout been so low.

(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)
(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton) A voter leaves the Bells Elementary School polling place for Colleton County, Tuesday, November 4, 2014, in Ruffin, South Carolina. W hen turnout falls, Democrats perform worse in elections. That general pattern is well known. In making their forecasts, pollsters try to estimate what that turnout will be on the basis of previous elections. This year, pre-election opinion polls were off by the largest amount seen in over 20 years. Could this massive underperformance by Democrats have been connected to a wrong guess about turnout? Here is a graph of turnout over the history of the United States. The data come from the Vital Statistics of American Politics and were plotted by Michael McDonald . As the graph shows, fewer people vote in midterm elections than in presidential elections—about 30 percent fewer, in the post-Watergate era. Data from Vital Statistics of American Politics , plotted by Michael McDonald. I have added to this graph an arrowhead...

Progressive Midterm Victories You Didn't Hear About -- And Some That Could Still Happen

Across the nation, voters passed measures against fracking and abortion restrictions, and for the minimum wage, paid sick leave, public safety and gun reform. 

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez) Topher Jones, from left, of Denton, Texas, Edward Hartmann, of Dallas and Angie Holliday of Denton, Texas, hold a campaign sign supporting a ban outside city hall, Tuesday, July 15, 2014, in Denton, Texas. A North Texas city became the first in the state to ban hydraulic fracturing when voters passed a ballot measure on November 4, 2014. T uesday’s Republican wave of election victories did not reflect public opinion or the public mood. Instead it was the result of the GOP’s triumph in changing the rules of democracy to favor big business and conservative interest groups, including the triumphs of corporate money and voter suppression. But while Democrat candidates were going down to defeat, liberals and progressive won some impressive but little-publicized victories on important issues—including minimum wage hikes—especially in red and purple states, suggesting that voters are not as conservative as the pundits are pontificating. One of the most significant...

Biggest Midterm Winner Wasn't on the Ballot: Chris Christie

Nothing better sets up a presidential run than raising dollars and getting out the votes for other politicians.

(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee) New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, foreground, campaigns for Florida Governor Rick Scott, left rear, during a stop at the Jacaranda Italian Restaurant and Pizzeria, Sunday, October 26, 2014 in Plantation, Florida. O n Tuesday, Republicans won big in races for offices at all levels of government. But the biggest winner of all is a politician who wasn’t even on the ballot: New Jersey governor and GOP presidential hopeful Chris Christie. As chairman of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), Christie spent significant time campaigning and fundraising for Republicans in 37 states this election season. Races that looked to be close or even potential GOP losses, such as the contest in Florida between incumbent Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist, turned into big wins for the Republican Party. RGA Executive Director Phil Cox said that the New Jersey governor played an “instrumental” role in Republican successes around the nation. In addition to Scott,...

Did Candidates Make a Mistake By Distancing Themselves From President Obama?

As I've written elsewhere, the best definition of a wave election may be that whatever happened in each individual campaign no longer matters all that much, and the results are all pushed strongly in one direction by the national trend. That's never 100 percent true for any race, because there's still variation among both winners and losers, but it becomes awfully hard after an election like this to say about any one candidate, "He would have won if only he had done this." Nevertheless, it's still worth asking whether the strategy adopted by so many Democrats this year of distancing themselves from President Obama was really a good idea. That impulse was particularly strong this year because so many of the races were in the South, where Barack Obama and the Democratic party are both unpopular. Even in other places, however, candidates didn't want to have anything to do with the President. For instance, there's an article in Politico today detailing how mediocre candidates (...

Republicans Tighten Grip in Southern State Legislatures

While Senate races distracted observers, the GOP piled up wins at the state level, all but assuring the prospects for more extreme measures on abortion and voting rights.

(Image: National Conference of State Legislatures)
(Image: National Conference of State Legislatures) Republicans gained more than 60 state legislative seats in the South in the 2014 elections, strengthening their dominance in the region's state-level politics. This article originally appeared at Facing South , the website published by the Institute for Southern Studies. W hile all eyes were on the shellacking of Democratic U.S. Senate candidates—including 10 who lost in the South — Republicans strengthened their hand in another key area on Election Day: control of state legislatures. After the 2014 elections, Democrats have the majority in just one legislative chamber across 13 Southern states — the Kentucky House of Representatives. In West Virginia, the only other remaining Democratic legislative stronghold in the South, Republicans gained 15 seats to take control of the House of Delegates, and gained seven in the state Senate to bring the West Virginia higher chamber to a 17-17 partisan tie. Altogether, Republicans gained 64...

Republicans Say That They'll Govern—Don't Believe It For a Second

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
N ow that Republicans have won complete control of Congress, you're going to hear a lot of arguments from Broderian commentators to the effect that after a midterm rebuke from the voters, what President Obama must do now is compromise, change the way he deals with Congress, and be less partisan. What you probably won't hear is a lot of detail, because as soon as you start to consider what those changes might mean, you realize how absurd it is. In order to compromise, you need two sides who are both willing to give something up in order to reach a mutually acceptable accommodation. So tell me: what exactly will Republicans be willing to give up in order to get some of what they want? When they only controlled one house of Congress, the answer was "Nothing." Why will they be more open-minded when they control both houses? For the last two years, Republicans have been telling their base, "Help us get the Senate back, and then we'll really stick it to Obama." Their means of doing so may...

Watch Party Dispatch: Undaunted By Grim Outcomes, Pro-Choicers Gather to Plot the Future

They had hoped for a better night, but they're already thinking ahead to 2016.

(Kristen Doerer)
Kristen Doerer Young pro-choice Democratic activists gather at Local 16, a Washington, D.C., bar, to watch election results of the midterms on November 4, 2014. W alking into the Local 16 bar on U Street in Northwest DC, I was surprised to hear the buzz of an energized crowd. I was, after all, walking into a Women’s Informational Network, also known as WIN, Election Day watch party. The stormy forecast for Democratic candidates and the recent attacks on abortion rights doesn’t necessarily lend hope to WIN, a political and social network of young, pro-choice, Democratic women. Local 16, a popular weekend destination for young professionals, is a dimly lit bar. Red walls and warm orange lights resembling rustic chandeliers lent a cozy quality to the room. An overwhelmed bartender moved quickly behind the counter, taking happy hour orders. CNN played on two different screens, the sounds of which were drowned out by the hum of a crowded bar. With happy hour extended to 10:00 p.m., the WIN...

Top 5 Senate Races Where Dark Money and Outside Spending Ran Wild

Half a billion dollars was spent on U.S. Senate races this year, making this cycle the most expensive midterm campaign ever.

Shutterstock.com
This article has been corrected. G et ready for a week of pundits making claims of just what was proven by the results of the 2014 midterm elections. But one thing is already quite clear: Money is indeed a deciding factor. Half a billion dollars was spent on U.S. Senate races this year, making this cycle the most expensive midterm campaign ever. Much of that money was used by non-profit issue groups for what is known as “outside spending”—meaning money used for advertising and other forms of communication ostensibly to support an issue, but most often an issue that is framed in such a way to lend support to the group’s favored candidate. (These are the ads that often say something like: “Call Senator X and tell him to stop [supporting some allegedly terrible thing].") The 2014 cycle also shows how effectively outside spending groups can sway elections: When conservative groups outspend liberal groups (and sometimes even when they don’t), conservative candidates win. North Carolina,...

The Democrats' Catastrophe and the Need For a New Agenda

(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, joined by his wife, former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, celebrates with his supporters at an election night party in Louisville,Tuesday, November 4, 2014. McConnell won a sixth term in Washington, with his eyes on the larger prize of GOP control of the Senate. The Kentucky Senate race, with McConnell, a 30-year incumbent, fighting off a spirited challenge from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, has been among the most combative and closely watched contests that could determine the balance of power in Congress. D emocrats had ample reason to fear that this year’s midterm elections would not go well for them, but bad doesn’t begin to describe what happened to them—and the nation—yesterday. Catastrophic is more like it. Democrats didn’t just lose the Senate; they lost statehouse after statehouse. They didn’t just lose the red states; they lost the purple and the blue. They lost the governorships of Maryland...

Democrats Cede Advantage to GOP By Failing to Embrace Pocketbook Populism

(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) In Kentucky's combative Senate race, Democratic candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes makes an appeal at a campaign rally, Saturday, November 1, 2014, at Transylvania University in Lexington, Kentucky. The results of the closely watched Kentucky contest will be crucial in the midterm election that could shift the balance of power in Congress. W hy are Democrats on the verge of an avoidable mid-term disaster? Some of the reasons include the six-year jinx, in which the president’s party normally loses congressional seats. Some of it is luck of the draw in terms of who is running, with less than stellar candidates such as Bruce Braley in Iowa and Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky. And some if it reflects an electorate turning against an incumbent president who is hunkered down rather than fighting back. Yet that set of alibis lets the Democrats off the hook far too easily. There is a huge amount of unfocused anger and frustration in America, much of it around...

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