United States presidential primaries

With Campaign Picks, Bachmann Tries to Woo Elites

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Michele Bachmann isn't known as a "serious" member of the House. In her four-and-a-half years in Congress, she hasn't crafted any significant legislation or chaired any committees, and while she maintains a constant presence in the media, it's more spectacle than anything else; she says outrageous things, and the media covers them.

Should Iowa and New Hampshire Give Someone Else a Turn?

carter2009linea-1x16.jpgAs presidential election years approach, it's not unusual to hear reservations about the primary schedule, and in particular, the huge influence of Iowa and New Hampshire. For example, here is _The New York Times_' **David Leonhardt** with [reservations](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/business/economy/01leonhardt.html?_r=1...) about the democratic bona fides of our presidential nomination process:

Today at the Prospect

  • Pema Levy writes that in Texas, one state senator's crusade shows how entwined women's health and abortion services really are.
  • Paul Waldman explains how group think will shape the Republican presidential primaries.

The Fox Conundrum

The article of the day is Gabriel Sherman's excellent piece in New York magazine about the current state of Fox News and its leader Roger Ailes. It's a fascinating read, and one of the things it reveals is how difficult it is to build ratings, serve the interests of the Republican Party, and maintain the idea that you're an actual news organization all at the same time:

Luck, Strategy, and the Mechanics of Winning Presidential Primaries

With Haley Barbour officially out of the presidential race, a pair of libertarian candidates in, and what appears to be a slow winnowing process underway for the Republican nomination, it's worth asking how a long-shot candidate would actually claim the prize. Jonathan Bernstein games out a possible scenario, and it seems to rely less on strategy than it does luck:

GOP Presidential Candidates Remain Unknown to Most Republicans

Are Republican voters passionate about their presidential choices? Apparently not, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll:

While it may not be unusual for voters’ attention to be focused elsewhere at this stage of a campaign, the survey at the very least provides a reality check for a race that has received frenetic coverage at times on cable news and the Internet even though nearly 60 percent of Republicans cannot point to a single candidate about whom they are enthusiastic, according to the Times/CBS poll.

2012 and the Ryan Plan, Cont.

Mark this as one of the few times when I completely agree with Newt Gingrich:

Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker exploring a bid for the Republican presidential nomination, said proposing a major overhaul of entitlement programs was not as politically fraught as it might have been a decade ago. But he said Republicans must be vigilant in defending their actions and mindful that Democrats were poised to attack.
 

“I think it is a dangerous political exercise,” Mr. Gingrich said in an interview Monday. “This is not something that Republicans can afford to handle lightly.”

The Great Man Fallacy in Politics

Time's Joe Klein feels embarrassed for the country whenever he sees the current crop of Republican presidential candidates:

I have never before seen such a bunch of vile, desperate-to-please, shameless, embarrassing losers coagulated under a single party's banner. They are the most compelling argument I've seen against American exceptionalism. Even Tim Pawlenty, a decent governor, can't let a day go by without some bilious nonsense escaping his lizard brain. And, as Greg Sargent makes clear, Mitt Romney has wandered a long way from courage.

Pawlectability

You may recall that in both 2008 and 2004 there were passionate debates among Democrats about which of the competing presidential candidates had the most electability. In retrospect, most of the arguments people made were wrong. In 2004, for instance, much was made of how John Kerry's heroic war record would make him immune to national-security attacks from Republicans. Ha!

Romney Has Already Proved He Can Win the Republican Nomination

The greatest question in the political blogosphere right now is whether Mitt Romney is a dead man walking or the inevitable 2012 Republican candidate. I'm joking, but as I've mentioned before, I think this question is answered pretty easily by looking at how he fared in the 2008 primaries. 2012 will likely be a repeat.

Why Huckabee Won't Run

It would be nice if we could stop paying attention to Mike Huckabee, but the other big news about him is that he is polling well across the South. The former Arkansas governor is popular, and as Paul points out, Huckabee comes across as the likable, down-to-earth sort of Israel-loving, crypto-birther conservative. (Back in 2008, he even made an appearance, pegged to music education, at the staunchly liberal Center for American Progress, because, you know, inviting the occasional Republican over helps convince the IRS to maintain your tax-exempt designation.)

The Meaning of Iowa.

One of the consequences of the late start to the presidential campaign is that candidates haven't been spending as much time in Iowa, and apparently, some candidates are contemplating skipping it altogether the way John McCain did in 2008, not least because Iowa's Republican voters seem to be getting more and more conservative. This is a good time to remind ourselves that the ritual candidate humiliation of parading through living rooms to meet Iowa voters 10 at a time is not actually written in the Constitution. Iowans certainly like it that way -- who wouldn't? I'd love to have presidential candidates personally beseech me for my vote.

Presidential Conventions Don't Affect the Vote.

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Next year's Democratic presidential convention will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina:

Democrats will gather in Charlotte, N.C., in September to vote on their nomination for the presidential election. The pick signals that President Obama will seek to re-create -- at least in part -- his winning electoral coalition.

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