United States public debt

Budget Gimmicks Get Their Day in Court

The Senate Finance Committee held a hearing this morning on the various budget gimmicks that Congress is considering, including in a vote on the debt ceiling. As the Prospect previewed earlier this week, the chief proposals up for debate were the Corker-McCaskill CAP Act, which reduces government spending to an arbitrary 20.6 percent of GDP, and President Obama’s debt fail-safe trigger, which invokes certain spending cuts and tax increases if the debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t start improving in 2014.

Competing GDPs in the Debt Ceiling

The Economist examined the U.S. government's bookkeeping methods and noticed that our economic models tend to present a rosier outlook than the equivalent European number crunching:

A Test of Seriousness for Spending Gimmicks

As we enter the weeks before Congress is finally forced to vote on whether or not to raise the debt ceiling, hopes of passing a clean bill – one that lets the U.S. add to its debt without attached riders to make it also cut spending – seem all but [vanished](http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_senates_debtceiling_wild_cards). Instead it’s [looking](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/will_the_white_house...) like the debt ceiling vote will either be accompanied by Sens.

These People Are Insane

Congressional Republicans are really eager to destroy any confidence foreign investors might have in the U.S. political system:

House Republicans are considering a plan to grant only incremental increases to the federal debt limit in a bid to extract more concessions on spending cuts and budgetary reform from the Obama administration.

The idea has a champion in Grover Norquist, the conservative activist and president of Americans for Tax Reform, who says he is “building allies” in the House Republican Conference to push for extending the debt limit every two months.

Americans Making Sense on the Economy

Whether they realize it or not, pessimism about the economy has led a number of Americans to embrace a liberal critique of current plans for deficit reduction:

Disapproval of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy has never been broader — at 57 percent of Americans — a warning sign as he begins to set his sights on re-election in 2012. And a similar percentage disapprove of how Mr. Obama is handling the federal budget deficit, though more disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are.

S&P Continues to Discredit Itself

This week Standard & Poor’s provoked what amounted to a non-event when it lowered its outlook on the U.S. debt from “stable” to “negative,” based on its expectation that Congress isn’t going to reach a meaningful compromise on deficit reduction in the near future. The downgrade came just days after the Senate subcommittee on Investigations released its massive report on the causes and villains of the financial crisis. The report indicted S&P, along with Moody’s, for keeping the credit ratings of mortgage-backed securities and collateralized-debt obligations artificially high, then sharply lowering them when the foreclosure rate began to skyrocket in 2007. It explains:

The GOP's Budget Nonsense

The GOP's nonsensical position on the debt ceiling has driven Matt Miller insane:

Well, debt limit mania has driven me to a similar frenzied state. If my wife came across my manuscript it would read, “The House Republican budget adds $6 trillion to the debt in the next decade yet the GOP is balking at raising the debt limit. The House Republican budget adds $6 trillion to the debt in the next decade yet the GOP is balking at raising the debt limit.” [...]

The Poor Are Easy Targets

Tomorrow, Rep. Paul Ryan will unveil the Republican budget proposal for 2012, which he typically bills as a plan for tackling the country's long-term fiscal problems. For instance, here he is in yesterday's New York Times:

“We want to get spending and debt under control, and we want to get the economy growing, and we want to address the big drivers of our debt, and that is the entitlement programs,” Mr. Ryan, chairman of the Budget Committee, said in an interview. “We have a moral obligation to the country to do this.”

Zombie Myths and Taxes

This, from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is still very wrong:

McConnell said the budget plan Senate Democrats presented Friday – calling for $10 billion in cuts – represented only one-sixth of the cuts outlined in a bill passed by House Republicans and backed by Senate GOP leaders. Earlier on the show, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) dismissed the GOP proposal as “reckless.” […]

“What’s reckless … is the $1.6 trillion deficit we’re running this year. What’s reckless is the $3 trillion we’ve added to our national debt,” McConnell said. “Our national debt is now the size of our economy. We’re beginning to look a lot like Greece.” [Emphasis mine]

Is the United States Broke?

Republicans have taken to declaring the country "broke" as justification for draconian cuts in social spending. It's a nice bit of rhetoric, but the evidence -- according to Bloomberg's David Lynch -- points to the opposite:

A Win-Win Scenario

To repeat a point, most Americans don't really understand the deficit and its relationship to the broader economy. Insofar that the deficit is a concern, it's as a proxy issue; Americans worry about the deficit when the economy is poor, and aren't too concerned when the economy is doing well. For example, here are the results from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

In the poll, eight in 10 respondents say they are concerned about the growing federal deficit and the national debt, but more than 60 percent — including key swing-voter groups — are concerned that major cuts from Congress could impact their lives and their families.

Debt as a Moral Issue

As states move to save themselves from fiscal doom, they are beginning to target health-insurance programs for the working poor, as a way to significantly cut costs:

Pennsylvania is one of several destitute states seeking to help balance budgets by removing adults from government health insurance programs.

Opportunities.

Kent Conrad wants to revisit health-care reform:

Unshackled by the need to get reelected, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) suggested Thursday that Democrats reopen the bitter healthcare debate, arguing that the reform law’s provisions could yield opportunities to cut the federal deficit. [...]

“The healthcare accounts, we’re spending one of every six dollars in this economy on healthcare. We’re heading to one of every three,” Conrad said. “There have to be further reform and savings in the healthcare accounts.”

Fact Check: Creditors Still Lurve U.S. Debt.

Andrew Sullivan responds to Freddie DeBoer’s post on debt, deficits, and “seriousness”:

The current math simply demands either massive tax hikes or massive benefit cuts in the future. Adjusting now will make the future, relative suffering less rather than more painful. And like Megan, I'd like to see the cuts focus on those who are most able to afford it. To use the obvious example: why should we be sending Warren Buffet a social security check?

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