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Election 2012

Don't Blame Gerrymandering

Jamelle BouieNov 21, 2011

This weekend, CNN aired an investigative report on partisan gerrymandering. The idea was to expose the practice as corrosive to democracy: “We wanted to show the most important part of the political process when it comes to congressional elections,” says Drew Griffin, who pursued the subject for CNN, “where politicians have been able to carve up the electoral process, therefore guaranteeing Democratic or Republican seats until they do this in the next ten years.” By Griffin’s lights, partisan gerrymandering is a practice that inflates the incumbency rate and leads to polarization and gridlock.

What to Read Before You Unwonk for the Weekend

Jaime FullerNov 18, 2011

Rejoice! Congress won at not ruining the Constitution today! The Super Committee won at doing nothing.

The Elephant in the Room

Patrick CaldwellNov 18, 2011

Mike Huckabee may have taken a pass on a second presidential run, but the 2008 Iowa winner turned Fox News televangelist still wants to have his say in this year's race. He's returning to Iowa—the state that defined him as more than just the Southern governor who lost all the weight—to co-host a forum with Citizens United next month. According to Politico, they have invited the eight major 2012 candidates, with abortion slotted as the primary topic of the event.

Why You Should Prepare for Another Year of Slow Growth and High Unemployment

Jamelle BouieNov 18, 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released its latest forecasts for unemployment over the next several years, and the news isn’t good. By the fourth quarter of 2012 –- election time –- unemployment is expected to be at 8.7 percent. Worse, unemployment isn’t expected to dip below 8 percent until 2014. This could change if growth speeds up over the next year, but the prospects for that aren’t good. For the unemployment rate to drop by any amount, real GDP needs to grow by at least 2 percent. To see a significant reduction in employment, GDP growth needs to reach 4 percent or higher.

Crazy People Running for President

Paul WaldmanNov 18, 2011
AP Photo/Andy Dunaway

Every four years, many people decide to run for president. You don't hear about most of them, because the news media decide, and reasonably so, to ignore folks like the immortal Charles Doty. Even among those who have held major political office, however, some are deemed serious and some are not. For instance, Buddy Roemer — a former member of Congress and governor of Louisiana — is considered not serious, as is Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico. Both are running for the Republican nomination, but neither gets invited to debates or has journalists reporting on their campaigns. Yet Michele Bachmann is considered one of the "real" candidates, even as she languishes in the mid-single-digits in polls.

Barack Obama Never Called Americans "Lazy"

Jamelle BouieNov 17, 2011

Last weekend, in a meeting with CEOs in Honolulu, President Obama offered some mild criticism of himself and the business community when it came to attracting foreign investment:

“I think it’s important to remember that the United States is still the largest recipient of foreign investment in the world. And there are a lot of things that make foreign investors see the U.S. as a great opportunity — our stability, our openness, our innovative free market culture.

Fixing the Courts

Patrick CaldwellNov 17, 2011

Rick Perry introduced a disastrous congressional reform plan earlier this week that has been rightfully ripped to shreds. Perry's plan would rewrite the constitution to turn Congress into a part-time body, opening the path to far more corruption, increasing the influence of lobbyists and money.

Stick a Fork in Him

Patrick CaldwellNov 17, 2011

He's stumbled his way through nearly every debate, including one of the most uncomfortable moments ever seen in a modern debate. He started his campaign leading the polls, only to drop to the bottom of the field. He learned that religious moralizing doesn't forgive a slight divergence from the Tea Party line on immigration. Despite Mitt Romney's inability to win over social conservatives and the clownish makeup of the rest of the field, there is little reason to believe Rick Perry can still win the Republican nomination.

What to Read Before You Unwonk Tonight

Jaime FullerNov 16, 2011
  • The GOP candidates are turning the Republican Party into a Toyota with its brakes on fire. They realized too late that their math on how many debates were essential to show off that they were 1) not Obama and 2) really conservative, was a bit off, but it’s too late to stop now, and the brakes wouldn’t work anyway. And once the general election comes, no one will trust what they’re selling. OK, I might have expanded on Peter Feaver’s metaphor a bit, but nonetheless Republicans are NOT happy.

Evidence Tampering

Joshua TuckerNov 16, 2011

There’s apparently a meme developing in the early general election reporting that goes like this: I know Obama is in a difficult position heading into 2012, but I can’t just report on the poll numbers or the fact that everyone knows incumbents have a difficult time getting re-elected when the economy is doing poorly, so I’m going to seize on some piece of information that’s out of context to be “another sign” that Obama is in trouble.

The Danger of Skipping an Early State

Patrick CaldwellNov 16, 2011

Terry Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats are two Iowans who rarely find themselves in agreement. They faced off in a bitter gubernatorial primary last year, essentially dividing the states' Republican Party into two competing camps. Branstad won that primary and later the general election, while Vander Plaats turned to judicial politics and has now crafted himself into a conservative rabble-rouser for the 2012 caucuses.

Democrats Handing Walker His Walking Papers

Patrick CaldwellNov 16, 2011

After waiting all year, Wisconsin Democrats are now poised to challenge Scott Walker. They were forced to hold off until a year after he was first elected, but on Tuesday they officially began gathering signatures for a recall election against their unpopular Republican governor, who earned national attention and the ire of cheeseheads when he used the state's new Republican majority to strip public employees of their collective-bargaining rights.

Reality Check

Jamelle BouieNov 16, 2011

For all of the punditry (from myself and others) about Mitt Romney’s unpopularity with GOP voters, it’s worth noting the extent to which Republicans are perfectly happy with the former Massachusetts governor. Here’s Gallup with its most recent look at the Republican presidential contest:

Mitt Romney is just as popular as Herman Cain or Newt Gingrich, his problem—in part—is that he has too many competitors, and Republican voters are indulging the extent to which they have a fair amount of choice. When the field begins to winnow in January, odds are very good that Romney will pick up a lot more support from Republican voters.

Are Debates Hurting the Republican Candidates?

Jamelle BouieNov 16, 2011

So far, the Republican Party has held 11 presidential debates, and between audience cheering for the death penalty, attacks on gay soldiers, or huge candidate gaffes, each debate has shown the GOP candidates in one unflattering light or the other. With 14 more debates to go, The New York Times reports some Republican elites are worried about the effect they could have on public perception.

“This is the core of the Republican brand. You mess with it at your peril,” said Peter Feaver, a national security official under President George W. Bush. He compared the foreign policy flubs to reports about safety problems in Toyota vehicles.

Another Fake Presidential Candidate Rises to the Top

Paul WaldmanNov 16, 2011

If everything works out, the Buddy Roemer boomlet should be perfectly timed to sweep him to victory in the Iowa caucus and make him the Republican nominee for president. OK, I'm kidding (and in case you were wondering, Buddy Roemer is a former Louisiana governor and congressman who is running for president, but for some reason, he's considered "fringe" and ignored while a half-dozen equally clownish candidates are allowed to participate in the debates). But watching the Newt Gingrich surge—he's now leading the Republican field in some polls—you could almost believe that every candidate, including Roemer, will eventually get their day atop the field.

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