Elections

Political Consultants Have Never Been Richer, But Are They Endangered?

Richard Gere in Sidney Lumet's "Power" (1986), the best film ever made about a political consultant.
These are flush times for the political consulting industry, as Citizens United allowed billions of new dollars to pour into every political campaign, with spending seemingly going nowhere but up. In a lot of cases, you'll have campaigns spending millions, while outside groups on both sides come in and spend millions more. In the end, they often all fight to a draw, their efforts cancelling each other out, with the final result being pretty much what it would have been if there had been almost no spending at all. And who really wins? The consultants, of course. So how long can they keep this game going? Lee Aitken of the Shorenstein Center has a new report urging journalists to pay more attention to where all this money is really going, and she highlights one remarkable figure. There was $6 billion spent on campaigns in 2012, but that's only part of the story: So who pocketed all that cash? Most of it went for ads on TV, radio and the Internet, of course; media buys are the biggest...

Daily Meme: White Men with Money—The Story of the 2014 Midterms

Since 2014 is already two months in and the November elections only a short nine months away, we figured a brush-up on where all the money will be coming from is in order. As you might have guessed, this will mostly be a list of wealthy white men. Enjoy! As Kermit the Frog once crooned, " it's not easy being green ." Billionaire Tom Steyer might disagree. The West Coast Rich Person of the highest order (retired investment muckety-muck; based out of San Francisco; has 1,800-acre ranch) made his official debut in today's New York Times in a piece heralding him as the Koch brother of the left. Steyer's PAC, NextGen Climate Action, is looking to spend as much as $100 million during the 2014 midterm elections. A sample of what he's done so far with his greenbacks (pun most definitely intended)? "Mr. Steyer poured tens of millions of dollars into a successful 2012 ballot initiative in California that eliminated a loophole in the state’s corporate income tax and dedicated some of the...

The Death of Dog-Whistle Politics

Flickr/Theron Trowbridge
If you go over to Politico right now, in the "Hot Topics" listed at the top of the page, along with Obamacare, immigration, and the Olympics, is the name Monica Lewinsky. Which might strike you as odd, given that Lewinsky has been rather quiet in the decade and a half since her affair with Bill Clinton became public and led to his impeachment. But aged though it may be, the Lewinsky scandal is back. This is a story about intramural Republican party competition, the GOP's inability to learn from its mistakes, and the death of dog-whistle politics. The problem for the Republicans is that they don't seem to have realized it's dead. The latest round of Lewinsky-mania started when the Washington Free Beacon, a conservative publication that defines its mission as "combat journalism" ("At the Beacon, we follow only one commandment: Do unto them."), went through the papers of Diane Blair, a longtime friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton, and found notes that described Hillary's words and...

It's Lonely At the Top

AP Images/J. Scott Applewhite
Last week, congressional Republicans got together at a Chesapeake Bay resort to contemplate their political fortunes. In one presentation, House Minority Leader Eric Cantor delivered a bit of shocking news to his colleagues : Most people are not, in fact, business owners. It would be a good idea, he suggested, if they could find a way to appeal to the overwhelming majority of Americans who work for somebody else. Their aspirations don't necessarily include opening up their own store or coming up with an amazing new product, so the prospect of lowering the corporate tax rate or slashing environmental regulations may not make their pulses quicken with excitement. They're more concerned with the availability of jobs, the security of health care, and the affordability of education. "Could it actually have taken Republicans that long to realize they should address such problems, especially when Democrats have made huge gains appealing directly to middle-class voters?" asked conservative...

Daily Meme: It's Complicated—The Wendy Davis Story

It's not going to be all pink sneakers and inspiring grassroots action this week for the Wendy Davis gubernatorial campaign down in Texas. On Saturday , T he Dallas Morning News broke the story that key facts of her hard-scrabble, single-mother biography had been "blurred" by the campaign: Davis was divorced at 21, not 19, the age which she and her campaign had asserted her first marriage ended; she spent only a few months living in a mobile home before moving to an apartment; and her second husband gave her significant financial help to pay for her time at Harvard Law School. “My language should be tighter ... I’m learning about using broader, looser language. I need to be more focused on the detail,” Davis says in the article, and on Monday , her campaign released a statement that Davis officially filed for divorce at age 20, and that it became final when she was 21. After clarifying her biography, the Davis campaign took a swing at Davis's opponent, Texas Attorney General Greg...

The Penultimate Watergate Baby

georgemiller.house.gov
The 1974 midterm elections, held in the wake of Watergate, were a Democratic landslide. The party increased its strength in the House of Representatives by more than 50 new members, many from suburban districts that had previously elected Republicans. The Watergate Babies, as the new members were called, were a different breed of Democrat than the veterans who represented more urban districts. They were not only more liberal on cultural issues and more committed to environmental causes than many more senior Democrats, but many of them were also less committed to the kind of bread-and-butter New Deal economic policies with which the party had been identified. In 1974, Jerry Brown was first elected governor of California preaching that the nation had entered an “era of limits,” by which he meant, limits to social spending. Gary Hart was first elected senator from Colorado, disparaging the politics of old labor Democrats. Today, just two Watergate babies remain in Congress, both from...

Marijuana Legalization Will Be the Gay Marriage of the 2016 Presidential Election

A Democratic primary voter. (Flickr/Jonathan Piccolo)
In Politico, Reid Cherlin has an article about the "Pot Primary" in which he makes the rather odd assertion that while the next Democratic president is likely to put him/herself where President Obama is on the issue, "Less predictable is what would happen under a Republican—or how the issue might play out in a volatile Republican primary. No one expects marijuana to be the deciding issue, but then again, it might well be a helpful way for the contenders to highlight their differences." Yeah, no. Apart from the possibility of some talk about not sentencing people to overly long prison terms for possession, there isn't going to be a debate amongst 2016 GOP candidates on this issue. The debate will all be on the Democratic side. The reason is that as much as Republicans would like to appeal to a younger, more diverse electorate, in the general election the candidates will be working to win the hearts of activist Republican voters. That means an electorate that is older, whiter, more...

A 2014 Primer: How to Talk Politely about 2016

Here are 11 sensible things to say about the far away race

AP Images/Haraz N. Ghanbari
AP Photo/Mel Evans I t could be Uncle Fred from Cincinnati who button-holes you at a Christmas dinner or your best friend from college who demands an answer during the pre-New Year’s Eve cocktail hour. But whatever your inner resolve—no matter how fierce your determination—you won’t be able to get through the entire holiday season without being asked to make a pronouncement about the 2016 election. Blood relatives and former roommates won’t let you off the hook with correct, but evasive, responses like “It’s too soon to tell” or “Ask me again in the fall of 2015.” You’re expected to have strong opinions about the unknowable future, just like the preening talkers on cable TV. We’ve all been there. And after a few glasses of holiday cheer, you end up offering a prediction that you immediately regret such as saying with ersatz precision, “Hillary will defeat Marco Rubio with 378 electoral votes, even after giving the Republicans Florida.” That saying of the sooth inevitably produces an...

The Year in Preview: Post-Preclearance Voter Protection

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
Lots of things happened in 2013. President Obama was sworn in for a second term. We got a new pope and a new royal baby. Two bombs went off at the Boston Marathon and scared a nation. The Supreme Court stripped power from the Defense of Marriage Act and the Voting Rights Act. But these are all stories we've heard before, and if you haven't, you certainly will in the millions of "Year in Review" pieces set to be posted between now and New Year's. Over the next two weeks, our writers will instead preview the year ahead on their beats, letting you know far in advance what the next big story about the Supreme Court—or the environmental movement, immigration reform, reproductive rights, you get the picture—will be. You're welcome in advance for not making you read a dozen more retrospectives on Ted Cruz and Twerking and fiscal cliffs and shutdowns and selfies. Below, we tackle voting rights. AP Photo/Tony Dejak A nyone concerned about voting rights will remember 2013 as the year the...

Presidential Primaries and Ideological Satisficing

I'm pretty sure she's a Democrat. (Flickr/Philip Marley)
Today I have a piece in Politico Magazine under the grabby but somewhat misleading headline "Left Turn = Dead End?" (So you know, for better or worse, writers don't usually write their own headlines.) My main point is that while economic populism is always good politics for Democrats, it isn't enough to just stake out the leftmost position (on economics or anything else) and hope that can win you the Democratic presidential nomination, just as it isn't enough to be the most conservative candidate in a Republican primary. There will indeed be an ideological debate within the Democratic party in advance of the next presidential election, which is a good thing. As they approach the end of the Obama years, Democrats are going to have to hash out who they are, what they believe, and where they want to go. But the reason being the most liberal candidate is insufficient is that primary voters aren't ideological maximizers, they're ideological satisficers. Satisficing is a term originated in...

Is de Blasio Copping Out Already?

AP Photo/Philip Scott Andrews, File
AP Photo/Seth Wenig I f it’s still rather unclear how Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio intends to govern New York City, his selection of William J. Bratton as police commissioner on Thursday offered precious little in the way of clarifying clues. The former top cop in Boston and Los Angeles, Bratton served as New York Police Department commissioner at the beginning of Rudy Giuliani's administration in the mid 1990s, where his success is credited with popularizing neighborhood-mapping programs like Compstat and the "Broken Windows" theory of crime, which essentially holds that pursuing petty acts of vandalism and maintaining urban environments can prevent more serious crime. What his admirers tend not to mention is that Bratton also ramped up the use of stop and frisk in Los Angeles, and that tactic represents the steepest cost imposed on the poor in the name of Michael Bloomberg's Luxury City—as well as a preferred campaign trail punching bag of de Blasio. But if the Bratton appointment is...

Will Zombie Marco Rubio Win in 2016?

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
Gage Skidmore / Flickr I f there’s one simple lesson from past presidential elections I wish reporters and pundits could learn, it’s this: Stop declaring candidacies dead before the primary even starts! Mistakes during the invisible primary can doom a campaign. But they usually don’t. The current burial that has me annoyed is the one for Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who received terrible reviews for his handling of immigration reform this year. Rubio, up to that point, had been considered by The Great Mentioner as a very possible nominee. Now, however, you can’t shake a stick without coming across mentions of his early demise. I have no idea whether Rubio will be running for president once the Iowa caucuses roll around, let alone whether he’ll be a strong competitor. What I do know is that the press is far too quick to write off presidential-nomination candidates who encounter setbacks. Perhaps the classic case is their premature burial of John McCain in summer 2007 after he ran...

But What Does Iran Mean for 2016?

AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi
AP Photo/Lior Mizrahi, Pool T here are two things to say about the electoral effect of the Iran deal. Barck Obama isn’t going to be up for re-election. Still, his approval rating will matter for Democrats in both 2014 and 2016. The first thing—and it’s correct, as far as it goes—is that the deal won’t have any electoral effect, whatever happens. Smart analysts know that voters just don’t care very much about foreign policy. And this one … well, it’s pretty distant from the concerns of most voters. Iran’s nuclear program has been in the news for a long time, but it’s not headline stuff for the most part. No matter how much of a fuss there is about it in the press this week, most voters won’t engage. The blunt truth is that this too will be gone from the headlines before very long, anyway. Without most voters paying any attention to it, that leaves only the most politically attentive, and they’ll divide the way they always do: as long as the balance of the coverage isn’t radically...

Who Knew Nerd Click Bait Was So Sexy?

Writer Pictures via AP Images
A few weeks ago, Mark Halperin and John Heilemann released the follow-up to their 2009 best-seller Game Change , given the best title their publisher's Department of Inane Clichés could devise (though I'll grant that Double Down: Game Change 2012 was a bit better than Game Change 2: Game Changier would have been). The revelations weren't particularly revelatory, sales have been less than overwhelming, and an HBO film version seems unlikely. The behind-the-scenes campaign account as a journalistic genre is now half a century old, having been initiated by Theodore White's The Making of the President 1960 , and it's showing its age. Is it interesting to know what Mitt Romney thought of the ads that were produced for his campaign, or whether one Obama strategist was feuding with another? Sure, if that's your thing. But it's hard to argue that learning the inside dope means you understand what happened in a truly meaningful way. Dustin Wayne Harris/Patrick McMullan/Sipa USA But we have...

"Double Down" Was Written for Morning Joe—Not Posterity

AP Images/J. Scott Applewhite
T he week Game Change was published in early 2010 coincided with my own version of journalistic martyrdom —watching my brain cells peel off like dandruff from enduring 60 hours of cable TV news in a week. From Morning Joe to Hardball to commercials for LifeLock, the authors of Game Change, Mark Halperin and John Heilemann, were inescapable. Every time I switched channels, Halperin and Heilemann materialized peddling another nugget about Sarah Palin or Hillary Clinton from their book on the 2008 campaign. The Game Change publicity machine so dominated cable TV news during that first week of selling in 2010 that I could have read the book in the time I spent hearing about it. It was not until I read all 473 pages of Double Down , the 2012 sequel to Game Change , that I realized I inadvertently had it right in the first place. The campaign books of Halperin and Heilemann are not designed to be read. They are instead written as fodder for cable TV news. Since both authors, whom I’ve...

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