Elections

Will Black Millennials, Faced With Voting Restrictions, Turn Out On Election Day?

North Carolina is closing college polling places. Texas has a forbidding ID law. Ohio curtailed early voting. For African-American students, the obstacles are mounting.

©Jenny Warburg
©Jenny Warburg The North Carolina NAACP’s Moral Freedom Summer organizers, shown here at a Raleigh protest, fanned out across the state to register and educate voters in advance of the November 2014 elections. F rom­ the onset of early voting for 2014 midterm elections, new voting restrictions—inspired by Jim Crow-era poll tests say voting rights experts—began creating havoc nationwide. Not only will this year’s midterms determine which political party controls the U.S. Senate, they’re also critical because contests for 36 governors’ mansions, 435 congressional seats, and the offices of other local officials are on the ballot. This year, it appears there’s a group targeted for exclusion from the voter rolls: minority millennials. In the past two presidential elections, the youth minorities voted heavily, arguably putting President Barack Obama in office. Off-year elections typically see a steep drop-off in turnout; the 2010 midterm election turnout rate for registered young voters (18...

Red State, Blue State: Polarization and the American Situation

The country is stuck but it is not stationary. Some things are changing—just not at the federal level.

(Map: Angr/Wikimedia Commons; Flag: AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip) A racing fan waves an American flag as they wait for the Formula One U.S. Grand Prix auto race at the Circuit of the Americas, Sunday, November 2, 2014, in Austin, Texas. This article appears under the title "The American Situation" in the Fall 2014 issue of The American Prospect magazine. A merica, it seems, is stuck—unable to make significant progress on critical issues such as climate change, rising economic inequality, and immigration. To explain that inaction, people often point to political polarization. Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, are now so sharply opposed to each other that they are unable to find common ground. But while the country is stuck, it is not stationary. Some things are changing; it’s just not at the federal level that the changes are emerging. Polarization leads to stalemate only under certain circumstances—when the two sides in a conflict are closely balanced, and political institutions and procedures (such...

How to Reduce the Voting Gap

Demos
This post originally appeared at Demos.org Over the last three decades, research suggests, the class bias of the voting public has increased dramatically. In the 2012 election, there was a 33 point gap between the turnout rate of the highest bracket ($150,000 or more) and the lowest bracket ($10,000 or less). My article explores the implications of this gap, but it’s also important to know the causes. Demos.org Registration: The first part of the problem is registration. One study finds , “state voter registration laws pose a substantial barrier” to the mobilization of low-income voters. We can see this in the Census data from the 2012 election (below). Among eligible voters in the highest bracket 87.1 percent were registered in 2012, compared with only 63.2 percent of those in the lowest bracket. This registration gap certainly plays a role in turnout inequality, and unnecessary burdens don’t help. Worse, many states are currently purging their voter rolls , which primarily affect...

Electing Judges Is Insane

This guy never had to run for reelection. Plus he brings his own gift bag. (Flickr/Nathan Rupert)
With a couple of minor exceptions, like a few local judgeships in Switzerland, the United States is the only country where judges are elected. Indeed, to the rest of the world, the idea of judges running for office—begging for money, airing attack ads against their opponents, thinking always about their next election even after they take the bench—is positively insane. And they're right. We've had elected judgeships for our entire history, but until the last few years, those elections were nothing like races for Congress or governorships. But those days are past—now not only are judges acting like politicians, outside groups (yes, including the Koch brothers) are pouring money into judicial races to produce courts more to their liking. And when you make judicial elections more partisan, you get more partisan judges, like one Judith French, a member of the Ohio Supreme Court who is running to retain her seat : At a Saturday event at which she introduced Republican Gov. John Kasich,...

Are GOP Donors Going to Get Anything In Return For Their Millions?

Oh please. Who are you kidding? (Flickr/Danny Huizinga)
If you're a liberal zillionaire who contributed lots of money this year to prevent a Republican takeover of the Senate, on Tuesday you're probably going to be pretty unhappy. Which is why, Ken Vogel of Politico reports , the people who run the groups through which all those millions are being channeled are rushing to reassure their donors that it was still money well spent. Which got me thinking about the conservative donors who are probably going to be celebrating next week. For some of them, Republican victories are an end in themselves, but others have a more specific agenda in mind. They help Republicans get elected because they expect something in return. To be clear, I'm not talking about quasi-legal bribery. If you're an oil company or a Wall Street firm, you donate to Republicans not so that they'll be forced to do what you want whether they like it or not, but because you know they like it quite well. Republicans want, deep in their hearts, to cut taxes and slash regulations...

Will Court Decision Against Voting Rights Advocates Shift Outcome in Georgia Senate Race?

On Tuesday, a Republican-appointed judge ruled that tens of thousands of new voter registrations—for mostly black and Latino voters—need not be processed before the November 4 election.

(AP Photo/David Tulis)
(AP Photo/David Tulis) nnie Laura Howard Stephens holds a Michelle Nunn sign at a rally for the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate before early voting at Fulton County's Adamsville Recreation Center on Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 in Atlanta. Nunn is running against Republican David Perdue. This article originally appeared at Facing South , the website pubished by the Institute for Southern Studies. I n the last couple weeks, polls on Georgia's races for U.S. Senate and governor have become closer and closer—so close, in fact, that a court decision on October 28 over allegedly missing voter registrations may affect the races' outcome. Michelle Nunn, the Democratic candidate for Senate, has begun to break even or lead in polls against Republican David Perdue. And Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jason Carter, grandson of President Jimmy Carter, trails Republican incumbent Nathan Deal by just two percentage points. Turnout of minority voters—and members of other demographic groups that...

Christie 2016: 'Vote For Me Or I'll Punch You Right In Your Stupid Face'

Flickr/Eugene Smith
All politicians have to deal with hecklers from time to time, and most try to handle it by being polite but firm, using the moments before security reaches the person and hustles them out to say something like: "This is America, and everyone has the right to speak their minds. So you've had your say, and now it's my turn." It allows the politician to show the crowd that he's unflappable and patient, but not intimidated. That is, unless you're Chris Christie, in which case every heckler is an opportunity to show that you're something else: a tough guy who don't take guff from nobody. To wit, this video from Wednesday, taken by a Democratic tracker: My favorite part is how Christie keeps calling him "buddy" (reminded me of this ). Now try to imagine what would happen if Barack Obama shouted "Sit down and shut up!" at a citizen. Or almost any other prominent politician, for that matter; commentators would immediately start questioning his mental health. But even though it's been a while...

Wisconsin Referendums Designed to Rebuke Walker Will Appear on Election Day Ballots

While these ballot measures—calling for an increase in the minimum wage and for the state to accept federal funding to expand its Medicaid program—are non-binding, organizers hope that the results will reveal a clear preference of the electorate for both.

(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski, File)
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski, File) Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker addresses the Republican National Committee summer meetings in Chicago on August 8, 2014. S ince his election to the Wisconsin governor’s mansion, Scott Walker, together with the Republican-led state legislature, has set out to undo some of the state’s progressive hallmarks, especially its hallowed place in labor history as a trailblazer in collective bargaining for public workers. Having pushed through a loudly contested bill in 2011 that all but ended that practice, Walker and the legislature have gone on to oppose raising the minimum wage and to reject the expansion of Medicaid available to the states, almost wholly with federal funding, under the Affordable Care Act. But this election day, as Walker's name appears on the ballot for a second term, county leaders and activists are using referendums to pressure the state to do both, in the hope of amplifying dissenting voices. While these referendums—calling for an...

Which Southern State Is Feeling the Brunt of Big Money Election Spending?

It's not just North Carolina.

(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) Retired teacher Blaine Heslett and his son Caleb, 15, right, listen as Lee Greenwood delivers his song "God Bless the USA", at a rally for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, in Cadiz at the Scott Jolly Farm, Tuesday, October 28, 2014. McConnell is campaigning during the final week before the crucial midterm election that could shift the balance of power in Congress. This article originally appeared on Facing South , the website published by the Institute for Southern Studies. D emocratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan's bid to defend her seat against Republican challenger Thom Tillis is shaping up to be one of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in history: a flood of more than $103 million in spending from the campaigns and outside groups, according to The Charlotte Observer. This month, the spending spree has translated into about three TV ads every five minutes supporting—or, more frequently, attacking — one of the North Carolina candidates...

The House Could Get Even Nuttier After This Election, But Heat May Be Off Boehner

(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) W ith all the attention focused on the Senate in next Tuesday's elections, it would be easy to forget that there's an election for the House happening as well. The consensus is that Republicans will probably add a few seats to their majority—not a defeat, but not a blow-out victory either. Which means that nothing changes, right? Well, not exactly . As Ed O'Keefe writes: A new band of combative conservatives is likely to win House seats next week, posing a fresh challenge for Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and his leadership team as they seek to govern an expanded GOP majority next year. Six to eight new lawmakers are likely to replace incumbent Republicans in deep-red districts, primarily in the South. Most of them, such as Gary Palmer of Alabama and John Ratcliffe of Texas, are backed by the tea party movement and will be more likely than their predecessors to oppose GOP leaders on key legislation. That's right—the House Republicans will get even...

Why the 2016 Republican Primaries Will Be a Messy Venn Diagram

This guy's coming back! (Flickr/Gage Skidmore)
The 2016 Democratic presidential primaries are promising to be rather boring—although anything can happen, at the moment it looks like Hillary Clinton won't have much competition, and if she does it will come from the less-than-electrifying likes of Martin O'Malley . The Republican side is where the sizzle is going to be, with a bunch of interesting personalities slashing each other to pieces in an exhilarating deathmatch. One of the themes of the commentary about that race will be the candidates' attempts to woo and ultimately secure as many of the GOP's constituency groups as possible. And I think there's a mistake in how we often think about that particular process. It's not a contest with an end point where one person wins. To see what I mean, let's take a look at this interesting article from Tim Alberta and Shane Goldmacher about the early struggle between Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee to win evangelicals : The courtship of Christian leaders by White House contenders—"the...

The Government We Deserve

Vote for me, because these are hogs.
This may be the most expensive midterm election in history, but it isn't necessarily the dumbest. That's not because it's smart in any way, just that elections in America are always dumb. To take just one tiny data point, the hottest Senate race in the country may be in Iowa, where everything turns on just how mad the Democratic candidate got when his neighbor's chickens kept crapping in his yard. Madison and Jefferson would be so proud. Commentators with brows set high and low periodically try to redeem a public that falls for this kind of stuff, with varying degrees of success. Political scientists often point out that accumulating detailed political knowledge is an inefficient use of time, when you can just use party identification as a proxy and almost all the time your decisions will be the same as they would if you knew as much as the most addicted political junkie. Perfectly true. But other attempts are less successful. I point your attention to a piece today in the Times by...

What's Wrong With Political Legacies?

That's Jebbie in front of his dad. (Wikimedia Commons/George Bush Presidential Library)
If you were Jeb Bush, you'd probably think this is a golden opportunity to finally mount that presidential bid you've been thinking about your whole life. The current Democratic president isn't particularly popular and has been serving for two terms, making the "time for a change" argument a natural for Republicans. The party is desperate for someone who can "reach out" to Hispanic voters, and you've long been known as the guy who can do that — your own wife is Mexican, and you speak Spanish. Perhaps most importantly, although there are a couple of Republican governors who might end up running, the competition at the moment doesn't exactly look like a field of giants. So over the weekend, we got new indications that Jeb '16 is on its way. Today's New York Times features an article about the Bush family's eagerness for Jeb to run, including sought-after endorsements by Jeb Jr., George W., and George H.W. Jeb's son George P. Bush appeared on ABC's This Week and said that his father is...

No Love for Obama as Election Day Approaches

Official White House photo by Pete Souza
Official White House Photo by Pete Souza I f Republicans win a significant victory in next Tuesday's election—and it now looks like they will indeed take the Senate—get ready for a whole lot of Obama-bashing, not only from the press and Republicans, but from liberals, as well. Some will go so far as to declare his presidency over, and I suspect more than a few genuine leftists will heap scorn on their liberal friends for their naïve embrace of a politician promising (as politicians always do) to change Washington. We can see one variant of this critique, the Jimmy Carter comparison, in a piece by Thomas Frank , based on an interview he conducted with historian Rick Perlstein: The moral of this story is not directed at Democratic politicians; it is meant for us, the liberal rank and file. We still "yearn to believe," as Perlstein says. There is something about the Carter/Obama personality that appeals to us in a deep, unspoken way, and that has led Democrats to fall for a whole string...

Have Republicans Found a Way to Insure Poor People and Still Hate Barack Obama?

Flickr/David Mason
At the risk of being overly optimistic, I think we may have reached a tipping point on Medicaid expansion, where it will soon become completely acceptable for Republican states to accept it, insure their poor citizens, and reap the economic and social benefits despite the taint of Obamacare. I'm not saying there won't be holdouts, because there will be. But something is changing. I'll explain why in a moment, but first, the quick background. (Skip this paragraph if you know all this.) When the Supreme Court decided in 2012 that states could opt out of the expansion of Medicaid included in the Affordable Care Act, some health-care wonks said we shouldn't worry. The expansion was so generous—with the federal government picking up 100 percent of the cost at first, then ratcheting down to 90 percent of the cost over a few years—that it would be insane for any state to turn the money down. In fact, the most conservative states had the most to gain, since their Medicaid eligibility levels...

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